Three reasons Christine O’Donnell might actually win

I got caught up in the moment Tuesday night and expressed my disgust with the
primary victory in Delaware of Christine O’Donnell.

I didn’t (and don’t) think she is qualified to be a United States senator. I
bought into the notion that Delaware is a traditionally blue state and that it
required a moderate like Mike Castle to win. And I expressed, in fairly tough
terms, how frustrated I was with conservative activists who seemingly would
rather lose elections on purpose than have candidates they agree with 60
percent of the time win.

My principal frustration has to do, though, with Christine O’Donnell. I might
agree with her position on all of the big issues (I am pro-life, anti-tax
increase, pro-spending cuts), but I still don’t think she has exhibited the
character necessary to occupy a Senate office. I think you have to pay your
bills, pay your taxes, pay your tuition and generally be a good citizen who
keeps your financial commitments to be qualified to be a United States senator.
O’Donnell has a spotty track record on all counts, from what I hear.

I disagree with Mike Castle on many of his positions and votes, but I think he
is a good person and a great public servant. I think he voted wrong on cap-and-trade,
and his efforts on the Disclose Act were wrong-headed and anti-Republican. So I
can see why conservatives wanted to vote against him. Believe me, I get it.

All that being said, the primary is over, and now we have to look at the
election ahead of us. Here are four reasons O’Donnell, despite all her flaws,
might very well win.

Her opponent: Chris Coons is terrible.
He has been terrible when it comes to protecting the taxpayers and the fiscal
integrity of the county he currently runs. According to a National Republican
Senatorial Committee (NRSC) analysis: “As New Castle County’s spending
skyrocketed by 10 percent under Coons’s leadership, he shifted the burden for
his irresponsibility to taxpayers with three massive property tax hikes of 5
percent, 17.5 percent and 25 percent respectively. In 2008, Fitch Ratings
downgraded the county’s ‘rating outlook’ from stable to negative because the
county’s cash balances were decreasing under Coons’s reckless stewardship.”

Her supporters: O’Donnell has
become the newest media superstar, and that has helped her get the money
necessary to run a decent campaign. The NRSC changed course and gave her the
maximum donation allowed under law, and most Republican senators and
presidential candidates will follow suit. In fact, she reportedly raised more
than $500,000 the day after her primary win, with some reports saying she
raised close to a million. That is a pretty impressive take for a woman who has
no chance of winning.

Her state: Yes, Delaware has
been a blue state, but it is not clear if that is because of the politicians or
because of the voters themselves. Tom Carper, for example, is one of the most
moderate Democrats out there. He is not from the Bernie Sanders school of
Democrats, because he knows he can’t be. And while Mike Castle has been a very
moderate Republican, his moderation came not because he had to vote that way,
but because, as a former governor, he wanted to vote that way. Sure, Joe Biden
had been unchallenged for a generation, but that doesn’t mean the state is
deep-blue. It just means that Biden had been around for a long time. Delaware
has one big city (Wilmington) and the rest is as rural as Alabama. The rural
voters, given the choice, will vote like Alabamans. And as they showed in this
election, they are motivated to vote, more so than the moderates.

The times: This is one of those
elections where no incumbent is safe, and nobody with a record of raising taxes
and raising spending is the favorite. This midterm election is a referendum on
President Obama, and those who dislike him are much more likely to come out to
vote. As Dick Morris points out in The Hill today, because fiscal issues are
front and center in this election, conservatives are much more likely to do
better, because people trust conservatives not to raise their taxes.

O’Donnell has a real shot at winning this thing. I don’t know if she will,
given her flaws as a candidate, but I do know that my instant analysis that
this seat was a goner was hasty and premature. This ain’t over till it’s over.
And this year, who knows what will happen?

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