The tax-cut conundrum

Behold the tax-cut debate! Democrats come back to town, armed with half
a dozen national polls showing the public is with them on the idea of
sunsetting tax cuts for the wealthiest earners.

Only 36 hours later they appear poised to fold, and extend the current rates to everyone, at least temporarily.

No one is saying it, of course. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday repeated her opposition
to extending cuts to the top two brackets, but she wouldn’t commit to
the time of a vote or the substance of a bill and wouldn’t rule
anything out. She also made clear “we listen to our members.”

Her members are telling her they are nervous; so far there are 31 of them, but watch for that number to climb. A vote on extensions only to the middle class before the election will be painted as a tax hike by Republicans, and vulnerable Democrats don’t want to take that vote. Republicans are also characterizing any delay in voting — for the lame-duck session following the election — as a tax increase.

Democrats feel cornered on the tax debate, and Republicans are emboldened. Two days ago it looked like Democrats would put if off, but as the pressure builds and “delay” becomes known as “a tax increase,” the odds are on Democrats passing a temporary extension to all taxpayers. They will buck President Obama in an attempt to stave off defeat in the midterms, and Republicans will claim a victory.

CAN O’DONNELL WIN IN DELAWARE? Ask A.B. returns Tuesday, Sept. 21. Please join my weekly video Q&A by sending your questions and comments to askab@digital-release.digital-release.thehill.com. Thank you.