They’re all gone

For Democrats, the last frantic weeks and days before the coming
bloodbath of the historic 2010 midterm election were focused entirely on
firewalls — rallying base Democrats in blue areas, hoping
to improve turnout and keep losses down. Much attention has been paid to
young voters, especially those who voted for President Obama just two
years ago. But they aren’t likely to flock to the polls Tuesday. They
didn’t even turn out that well in 2008, they just voted overwhelmingly
for Obama and against Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).
 
True independent voters, the kind who swing back and forth, are already
gone. Polls show them now supporting Republicans and disapproving of
President Obama and the Democrats by significant numbers. The Midwest is
gone; the South is gone. Older voters are gone.
 
If Democrats wake up Wednesday and find there was a small firewall that made the difference in keeping down the GOP margin of victory, it will have probably been female voters. And at this point, even that group doesn’t look promising.
 
Recent polling shows that female voters, who have traditionally aligned with Democrats, may be trending Republican for the first time in three decades. Much has been made of this year as the Year of the GOP Woman, because Republicans managed to recruit some highly qualified females to statewide races. (Though Tea Party-backed candidates like Christine O’Donnell and Sharron Angle will not, win or lose, be remembered among them.) Republican Susana Martinez is about to become the first Hispanic female governor in the country, should she prevail in the gubernatorial race in New Mexico. Nikki Haley is expected to become the first female governor of South Carolina and the second Indian-American governor in the nation.
 
But the candidaciers of Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina, which excited Republicans who hoped the two businesswomen could change the dynamic in the largest state in the nation, have shown the limits of women attracting the support of women, even in a Republican year. Whitman, should she become California’s first female governor, would have instantly been a potential presidental candidate, but is behind former Gov. Jerry Brown (D) and is expected to lose. Fiorina trails Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) in the polls. A Los Angeles Times/USC poll found that among California voters, men support Brown by three points while women support him by 21 points over Whitman. In the Senate race, women chose Boxer by 17 points while men backed Fiorina by two points over Boxer.
 
The economy, and the fear of federal spending and growth of government, may help Republicans win more women over this cycle. Democrats hope not.

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