It may be that all the political soothsayers are correct in predicting that Republicans will gain seats in the House of Representatives and take over control of the Senate in this off-year election, but it is not likely that much will change or that it will be beneficial for the new Republican majorities.
One day before the election, depending on which poll you read, there are six Democratic Party Senate seats in jeopardy. The media, the pundits and the pollsters believe that Democrats will lose those seats and maybe more, giving Republicans a slim majority and control of Congress. More significantly, the changes will only exacerbate the political warfare on Capitol Hill and in the crosstown battles with the White House and an unpopular President Obama.
{mosads}Vic Gold, one of Washington’s astute political wise men, believes that Republicans should heed the admonition about being careful what you wish for. Gold, who has impeccable Republican credentials — worked for Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-Ariz.) in his run for the presidency, was a press secretary to Vice President Spiro Agnew and worked in the President George H.W. Bush White House – believes that a more right-wing Republican congress will be a political disaster for Republicans on the cusp of a rapidly approaching 2016 presidential race.
Gold adds that the 2014 off-year elections are nothing less than the opening salvos of the 2016 presidential campaign. There will be no relief in the partisan divide in Washington. What 2014 also portends is that the Republicans will likely face even more internecine fights within a deeply divided party. The Tea Party and the more conservative factions, personified by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, will do everything in any power than can muster to overwhelm the more moderate Republicans in the Senate to project their more right-wing agenda.
It is expected that the more conservative members, especially in the House, will initiate legislative proposals that could, for example, block immigration legislation, attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act and find a way to initiate impeachment proceedings against Obama.
If the Republican Congress sends such legislative proposals to the White House, the president will spend much of this time using his veto powers. On that front, the Republicans believe that, again with 2016 in mind, they will be able to build campaign positions that Congress couldn’t accomplish anything because of Obama irresponsibly being excessive in using the veto.
Actually, having a Republican Congress dominated by Cruz and Tea Party extremists could turn out to be a gift for Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic Party candidate for president. She can look back to President Truman’s successful 1948 campaign in running against a “do nothing” congress, something she would not be able to do if Democrats continue to hold the Senate, no matter how thin the margin.
It could also be a repeat of the President Bill Clinton years when Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) initiated the ill-conceived shutdown of the government, and when Republicans tied the country up in a costly impeachment of President Clinton, not to mention supporting the expensive and failed Kenneth Starr investigation. Bill Clinton’s popularity actually increased during this period because the voting public had had enough of the bickering.
This is an election that, for all the millions spent, will not make much difference no matter what the outcome. Not much will change and political Washington will still be dominated by a divided Congress and a weakened unpopular president. All the attention after Tuesday will be in looking to 2016.
Conconi is a veteran Washington journalist who has worked at The Washington Post and Washingtonian magazine.