Trump will lose, but GOP can win

On Tuesday, Republican nominee Donald Trump called for ethics reform in Washington DC, with term limits serving as the centerpiece of his focus. Yet the same day, fresh polling showed how unlikely it is he’ll get the chance to implement this legislation as president: Alaska, Arizona, and Texas are now toss ups. Even in must-win Utah, my former CIA classmate Evan McMullin is surging.

In the coming days and weeks, the Trump campaign – and Mr. Trump himself – will face an ominous decision on how to manage what will likely be a historic loss. In intelligence parlance, I think he ought to win by losing. Here’s how.

After a bruising campaign, recent polling still shows that Trump can count on the unwavering support of 15 states – ranging from Idaho to Mississippi; according to the Cook index, these states have a combined total of 78 solid Republican Congressional districts. Additionally, Trump is likely to carry 32 districts in swing states, even if he ultimately loses the presidential contest. These include places like Florida’s 1^st/3^rd/4^th/11^th districts, and North Carolina’s 2^nd/3^rd/5^th-11^thdistricts.

All told, Trump will likely have the support of voters controlling at least 110 Congressional seats.

So what might Trump do to direct the passions of the voters in these 110 seats? While a rumored TV network might be appealing, he ought to start his own political party in 2017 and target those 110 districts in the run-up to the 2018 election.

The current Congress is divided between 246 Republicans and 186 Democrats. Even if Trump were to “only” secure 55 of the 110 seats, he’d have a block of Congressmen and women ready to caucus with either major party – and, along with their coalition, access to the Speaker’s gavel.

The price of admission? Agreement to advance legislation of interest to Trump’s party, like ethics reform and term limits. Trump would probably force the resignation of Speaker Paul Ryan and lieutenants like Rep. Greg Walden (OR 2^nd) who abandoned Trump in the face of mounting bad press.

By taking his Presidential loss and turning it into a House victory in 2018, Trump could reinvent himself as the ultimate deal-maker for the nation’s “deplorables.” He would hold a lever of power without ever having to run for office again.

He would be a winner.

In normal times, this path wouldn’t likely be successful. After all, new parties are expensive to underwrite and Congressional races cost on average $1.5 – 2.0 million dollars apiece. Fifty-five seats would push this endeavor well past $100 million.

But these aren’t normal times. Trump will be an aggrieved billionaire with legions of small donors, along with wealthy supporters like tech magnate Peter Thiel who are desperately seeking to thwart a Hillary Clinton agenda. And there are hordes of angry Americans – some 40 percent at last count – who believe that the 2016 election is likely to be rigged. They’ll be looking for a fight after their electoral injustice, real or perceived. Ensuring that they are a part of America’s democracy would be of benefit to all of us, not to mention rehabilitating Trump’s legacy.

Wright is a former CIA officer who provides commentary on political, national security, and tech issues. Follow him on Twitter @BryanDeanWright

The views expressed by Contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.