My friends say that I am way too optimistic, but I will go where few political
pundits dare to go and predict the Republicans will pick up 77 — that’s right,
77 — seats in the House of Representatives, and when you count Republican retirees
who are being replaced by newly elected members, John Boehner will have around
100 freshmen coming into town the third week of November.
How do I get to 77? The answer is math.
RealClearPolitics shows the Republicans at 224 with 43 toss-ups. That is a pickup
of 45 seats for the Republicans if the Democrats win EVERY toss-up. In a wave
election, the late-breakers go to the winning side, so I am projecting that the
Republicans win three out of four toss-ups, or 31 of those races. That puts it
at 76.
Based upon what I have been told from certain campaigns that are in the lean-Democrat
category, like the New Hampshire-2 race where the internal polls for Republican
Charlie Bass show him winning, it isn’t even close. Similarly, the latest
listed poll shows Ike Skelton holding onto his overwhelmingly Republican seat,
but everyone I know believes he is cooked.
To put this election into perspective, in modern history, the previous largest
Republican gain was 55 seats in 1946, and it is this historical barrier that is
keeping most political pundits from believing their eyes and ears.
Washington political analysts were the last ones to figure out the 1994
Contract With America Republican victory, because it ran counter to their
entire life experience. Similarly, they are struggling with this “Tea Party” election
because no one alive has seen a generic congressional ballot that puts
Republicans at between plus-6 and -8.
Why this generic ballot is particularly important is that Democratic districts
tend to be packed in urban areas, with Democrats having negligible Republican
opposition in their districts. Due to this compacting of hardcore Democrat
districts, and the lack of anything comparable on the Republican side,
Republicans typically win if the generic ballot is close to even.
Now, Democrats in what were formally nominal Democrat districts are scrambling
for their lives because the swing voters have rejected their party brand, and
there is nothing they can do about it.
Michael Barone on the Grandy Show on WMAL brought the difficulty the Democrats
face home quite eloquently this (Monday) morning, when he mentioned that House
Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Jim Oberstar (D) of
Minnesota is in deep trouble in his reelection bid. The last time his Iron
Range District voted Republican was in 1944. In fact, Barone points out that it
was one of three districts that switched from Republican to Democrat in the
massive 1946 Republican wave election.
On second thought, maybe 77 seats is too conservative a prediction; this could
be really big.
Rick Manning is a former local elected official in Chesapeake Beach, Md.,
and currently is the director of communications for Americans for Limited
Government. As always, all of his opinions are his own, and do not necessarily
reflect those of ALG.