Tuesday’s lessons

What was not expected was that the one contest between the two parties that
night — a special election to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D) in PA-12
— was not a Tea Party triumph or referendum on President Obama. A tight race
both parties expected the Republicans to win turned out to be a GOP
embarassment, a sharp break from the conventional wisdom that had buried
Democrats before the funeral. A near-landslide victory by the
Democrat there darkened hopes that the GOP can actually win the 40 seats
required to return to power this fall.
 
Most people looked at the results and saw that incumbents are in trouble, and
they are correct. But as I noted in my column this
week, there are additional lessons to be learned.
 
To begin with, if you are a Democrat struggling in a campaign for reelection, do not
let President Obama near your district. If you are a centrist, or attempting to
pitch bipartisanship to voters angry that Washington does nothing to solve the
nation’s greatest problems, be aware that the electorate this year is punishing
those who worked across the aisle, like Lincoln, Specter and Sen. Bob Bennett
(R-Utah), who lost his bid for a fourth term two weeks ago. Sen. John McCain
(R-Ariz.), fighting for his life in a primary challenge from former Rep. J.D.
Hayworth (R-Ariz.), is doing all he can to make voters forget he was ever in
the same Capitol hallway with a Democrat, let alone the co-sponsor of sweeping
initiatives the GOP opposed.
 
Rand Paul — already starring in his own firestorm because he believes the
freedom of business owners should not be tampered with, even if they might
discriminate — will have staying power and could very well be the next
U.S. senator from Kentucky, thanks to his father, Rep. Ron Paul
(R-Texas). Republicans need to accept that Paul the senior is enormously
influential among the grass roots and that he and his network will continue to be a
force for years to come. The sooner the GOP acknowledges this, the better
off the party will be.
 
It’s too early to make predictions about what will happen in the races to come, and there are opportunities for both parties to learn from May in preparation for
November. But Democrats are correct when they say that unlike 1994, they have
been warned in time. They are still likely to lose seats, though
perhaps not as many as it now appears.
 
Smart Republicans like Cornyn, who have climbed inside the polling
and know independents remain wary of the GOP, know the voters need to be
convinced that a new majority would do things better.
 
“We have a chance and an opportunity this year, but we haven’t
convinced people we’re credible when it comes to governing, so that remains our
biggest task,” Cornyn said.
 
But that message isn’t exclusive to Republicans. It’s clearly time for
both parties to talk about the way out of the messes we are in, to explain
— even if it is partisan — what their idea of governing is. 
 

ARE EXPENSIVE JOBS BILLS BECOMING A LIABILITY FOR DEMS? Ask A.B. returns
Tuesday, May 25. Please join my weekly video Q&A by sending
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Thank you.