As goes Hawaii?

The first is the candidate himself. A JAG lawyer and Honolulu City Councilman, Djou knows how to work a policymaking institution. He’s a solid, formidable legislator with an equally solid agenda — fix Washington and save it from the Party of Debt, er … I mean, the Democrats. Contrast that measured, “outsider” posture against a party long viewed to be out of touch with its constituents, and you have the makings for a Republican to actually keep that seat, even if barely. Just ask Rahm Emanuel about running the right candidates for tailored districts. There was no mold he tried to fit when recruiting his Democratic team in 2005 and 2006. His motto was “Just win, baby!” and he did.

Second, the Republican Party is taking full advantage of what UVA Professor Larry Sabato calls the “enthusiasm/frustration gap.” Americans are no doubt frustrated with the policies of this president and his party, with little relief in sight. Pair that palpable angst with a renewed enthusiasm that Republicans are actually starting to look like a party with bold ideas and a political backbone again, and you have a winning calculus that widens the gap between Obama voters who turned out in 2008 and those who won’t show in 2010. There’s just little desire this cycle. National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Session (Texas) proved that over the weekend in Hawaii — turning out what little party faithful he had in the 1st district, yet also leveraging that frustration voters are feeling enough to pull Djou across the finish line.

As Hawaii goes, so goes the House? It’s not that farfetched a claim. If Republicans can continue to recruit personable, professional candidates with a solid message of fiscal austerity that rides the tidal wave of frustration voters are feeling, then President Obama may have to deal with a Speaker Boehner come 2011.

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