For free community college, completion is key

President Obama’s proposal for free community college is an ambitious effort to address critical gaps in America’s post-secondary education and career training systems. However, it may fall flat before it even gets off the ground, and that’s not just because of its high price tag. It’s because community college success depends not on how many students enroll, but how many complete.

Under President Obama’s proposal, all Americans will have access to two years of free tuition at our nation’s public community colleges. The only requirements are to maintain at least C+ grades and to be making “steady progress” toward a degree. It calls for the federal government to cover three-quarters of the estimated $60 billion cost, with states covering the rest.

{mosads}Certainly, increasing community college enrollment is a good start for boosting youth employment prospects. Young Americans without a post-secondary degree are not faring well in today’s workforce. My own research shows how they have been gradually pushed down and out of the labor market, in a phenomenon I call the “Great Squeeze.”

But boosting enrollment by itself isn’t enough. For this to be successful, it must raise the notoriously low completion rates at community colleges, particularly for minorities, now hovering around 30 percent. Young Americans with only some college have much lower labor force participation rates than those with college degrees, closer in fact to those of high school graduates, and lower real earnings as well. That’s why non-completers comprise the overwhelming majority of student debt defaults.

Supporters of the free community college proposal argue it will go a long way in helping low-income and minority populations access the benefits of higher education. They point to the “Tennessee Promise” program, on which this proposal is modeled, as an example of how it can work. Although Tennessee Promise is still in early stages, it is estimated that 57,000 residents applied for the program in its first year — more than double its 20,000 goal.

Yet there is a big difference: Tennessee Promise provides mentoring services customized to each student. This is critical; research shows the importance of counseling in successfully getting students from enrollment to degree. Moreover, the successful record of Tennessee’s community colleges is rooted in having technical coursework in collaboration with local employers, something that doesn’t require free tuition.

Nationally, our community college system is not well-regarded. Much has been written on the failure of community colleges, to the detriment of young Americans entering the workforce. In fact, I have argued the entire community college system is in need of reform. Throwing more government money at the problem will not fix that.

Congress, which would have to devise a feasible way to pay for the president’s proposal, should also be aware of the hidden costs — namely, weak incentives for students to complete community college, and for the schools themselves to improve.

Students, for example, could meet the president’s criteria for steady progress, and get good grades, but still leave without career prospects or marketable skills. Many are funneled into remedial classes, or classes unrelated to their chosen course of study. The president’s free college proposal thus risks putting taxpayers on the hook for services that don’t boost students’ employment prospects.

It is also not clear that tuition is the main reason community college students are failing to complete a degree. At many public community colleges, tuition is already low, averaging $3,300 nationally for the 2014-15 school year, with net prices actually negative (meaning that after receiving grants and tax benefits, students get more than enough to cover tuition and fees). For low-income students, most of the cost is already covered by Pell Grants, whose recipients also have low completion rates.

The effectiveness of free community college ultimately depends on the degree to which schools are evaluated, and on student outcomes. Without accountability, a guaranteed subsidy provides little motivation for schools to change bad current practices, partner with employers, match students with jobs or take on other potentially valuable reforms. Worse, it could take pressure off high schools to ensure that their graduates have the basic skills necessary to succeed in community college.

A Republican congress is unlikely to approve a new middle-class entitlement to community college, especially one that isn’t paid for. Still, any progressive post-secondary education plan must emphasize not only access and opportunity, but also completion and accountability. Without adequately addressing all of these, free community college isn’t likely to get much traction.

Carew is the director of the Young American Prosperity Project at the Progressive Policy Institute.