Which Dodd-Frank rules are on the chopping block next year?

When President-elect Donald Trump takes the oath of office in January, he’ll have a unified Republican Congress largely supportive of his regulatory reform agenda.

Amending much of the Obama Administration’s policies will be difficult, but a law known as the Congressional Review Act (CRA) will allow Congress to bypass the filibuster and rescind any rule issued during the last six months of President Obama’s term.

With this power, President-elect Trump and Republicans could target the post-crisis Dodd-Frank Act and other financial regulations for repeal in 2017.

{mosads}There are several benefits of the CRA. First, even with unanimous Democratic opposition, Republicans will be able to use expedited procedure in the House and Senate. The filibuster is off the table. For example, the only time a rule was rescinded with this power was in 2001, when it took Congress just one week to undo a Department of Labor ergonomics rule. In Washington, a week is light speed.

Once the president signs the resolution of disapproval, it has the effect of any general federal law. Regulators may not reissue it in “substantially the same form.” There is debate about what those words mean, but for practical purposes, the regulation is gone for at least four years.

Unlike reforming regulation through the traditional notice-and-comment process, which can take years, a CRA vote is short and as permanent as anything in politics. For the parts of Dodd-Frank that Republicans find most objectionable, this is a powerful tool.

Many of the most controversial aspects of Dodd-Frank likely fall outside of the window for repeal. The Volcker rule, capital requirements for swap entities and pay ratio disclosure all must likely be amended through the traditional rulemaking process.

However, there are at least nine Dodd-Frank rules that Congress could scrutinize next year. The largest, which would require disclosure of payments by resource extraction issuers, imposes more than $1 billion in costs, along with 217,000 paperwork burden hours. It might be appealing simply from the regulatory burden perspective. This is also the second iteration of this rule from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A federal court struck down an earlier version of the rule.

Another possible option for the chopping block is an SEC rule that establishes standards for registered clearing agencies. It imposes more than $200 million in burdens. In addition, there are several rules that could be finalized at any moment during the Lame Duck, making them eligible for review next year.

Although there are at least nine eligible Dodd-Frank rules that could be repealed through the CRA, Congress is unlikely to repeal all nine, or even a majority.

It’s largely a question of floor time in the House and Senate. There are expedited procedures, but even if the Senate spends just one day debating and passing a measure, that’s a day that cannot be dedicated to nominations, passing a budget, health care, and tax reform. Congress will have a lot on its plate during the first 100 days. While regulation will be a priority, it is unlikely to be the first priority.

Recently, the House overwhelmingly passed the Midnight Rule Relief Act, sponsored by Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Calif.). This bill would allow Congress to bundle multiple regulations into a single resolution of disapproval. Given the time constraints, five to six regulations might be the high-end of repealed rules.

With the Midnight Rule Relief Act, this figure could be doubled. However, this scenario would require Senate passage and a signature from the president. Getting eight to nine Democrats to sign on to legislation that would make it easier to undo more of President Obama’s domestic legacy seems unlikely.

The most realistic scenario is Congress overturning one or two Dodd-Frank regulations, but there are other immediate steps the administration could take.

A recent court ruling striking down the structure of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) might allow President-elect Trump to bring the now-independent agency within executive control. If his administration takes this step, it could force CFPB to submit rules for review at the White House and scrutinize every measure, and perhaps even limit the output of regulation. This might be a consolation prize to conservatives seeking to eliminate CFPB.

Along with tax reform and other priorities, regulatory modernization will be front-and-center during the next session of Congress. Although the CRA gives Congress and President-elect Trump the power to overturn up to nine Dodd-Frank measures, expect no more than one or two votes to repeal. In addition to these efforts, there could be a positive agenda from Republicans to implement a new system that safeguards the financial system without unduly burdening businesses and consumers.

Sam Batkins is director of regulatory policy at the American Action Forum, where he leads research on the rulemaking efforts of administrative agencies and Congress.

The views of Contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.