Is Nigeria about to explode?

Nigeria has the largest black population in the world: 178 million. Within that population are 300 differing ethnic and culture groups. Traditionally, colonial powers such as Britain would group various ethnicities together to provide confusion and controversy. A confused populace was much easier to exploit and colonize. Nigeria has yet to evolve from that condition.

{mosads}The largest group lives in the southwestern part of the nation and they are known as the Yoruba. They have a control system managed mainly by monarchs and are successful politically. Another large group is the Igbo, who mainly live in the southern Delta area of the nation, which is known for its oil exploration. The third-largest group is the Hausa–Fulani, who are generally Muslim and locally run by emirs.

With the oil industry as its financial base, the Igbo decided in 1967 that they would go it alone and part from the government of Nigeria. Thus the great Civil War of 1967 began. This became one of the bloodiest conflicts known to mankind, as the Yoruba cut off the supply lines to Igbo country (known as Biafra). By the end of the conflict, 1970, over 1 million Igbo had died, mostly from starvation, as the rest of the world ignored it all. The nation has kept its original formation, but the tribal chasms remain.

Like the Delta oil region, the northern Chad Lake Basin has discovered viable oil reserves and when the high price of oil returns, you will see an extreme amount of exploration. The Hausa-Fulani control this segment and they have no ideas of sharing it. Besides the other major groups, the bordering nations of Chad, Niger and Cameroon have their ideas of exploiting it. This is the major problem.

The Hausa–Fulani are becoming more and more jihadist. The major negative activity is that of Boko Haram, with a mission to form an Islamic state right over the Chad Lake Basin. They are starting a cleansing process through roving groups of murderers and ethnic cleansing. Boko Haram is as lethal and as vicious as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in the Middle East. Their funding is mysterious, but one can bet it’s coming from the Middle East.

Boko Haram is growing and is unchecked by the Nigerian army. This army is inept and corrupt. You don’t know what you get whenever the army starts to move. Coupled with an unreliable military is the political climate. For the first time in many years, President Goodluck Jonathan’s party is being seriously challenged in the upcoming elections. If Jonathan is defeated, there is a big question: Will he step aside? If not, major chaos throughout the nation will appear. At the same time, Boko Haram will reap massacres in the Chad Lake Basin area. That will invite the armies of Chad, Niger and Cameroon to step in and add to the possible carnage.

Our State Department has shown no viable strategy in the above mess. The U.N. has shown token input or leadership. What we have is a large swath of land, well-populated, about to boil over. The commercial activity of Nigeria may come to a big halt and it will take years and perhaps a few million deaths before some semblance of responsibility and good governance arrives. Is anyone listening?

Alford is the president and CEO of the National Black Chamber of Commerce.