I awoke to world markets in chaos Wednesday, just before I head to the University of Calgary to speak about the impact of the U.S. election on U.S.-Canada relations.
Is that a short-term response to a surprise event or an expression of long-term concern?
Predicting what a Donald Trump presidency will look like is, to say the least, difficult.
Will Trump tear up NAFTA? Will he resolve trade disputes involving soft wood lumber, dairy imports and other routine issues?
{mosads}Will the Keystone XL pipeline be reinvigorated, will walls be built, will immigration be halted, will the pre-clearance agreement be put into effect, will the joint declaration “Beyond the Border” survive? What about the Regulatory Cooperation Council? Will the Department of Homeland Security be funded solely to keep people and goods out or to facilitate the movement of people and goods?
More importantly, does Trump even consider these questions, and will he appoint people of like mind (a term I use rhetorically)?
On the Canadian side, as well as with many other trading partners, questions about the reliability of the U.S. as a trading partner will surely emerge.
Will Canadian investors and businesses continue to trade with and invest in the U.S. or look for other opportunities? The EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) could not have arrived at a better place in time, as it creates immediate “other” market opportunities for Canada.
For those of us who live along the border, Trump’s election is perhaps a life-altering event.
Will we experience a decline in Canadian visitors and business investment, including slowing imports and exports that support many jobs? Will we see a decline in tourism if getting across the border becomes more difficult?
Leading up to the election, Canadians expressed real concern about the U.S. election, with their polls showing a strong anti-Trump sentiment. Given Trump’s penchant toward revenge, will he lash out at Canadians to punish them?
My conversations today will provide me with insights into what is next for Canada as Canadians see it. Stay tuned.
Owens, a former member of Congress representing New York’s 21st District, is a partner in the firm of Stafford, Owens, Piller, Murnane, Kelleher & Trombley, PLLC, in Plattsburgh, N.Y.
The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the views of The Hill.