Reid’s gambit

There’s no doubt the move alienated Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine). Worse still, the lurch leftward also caused more moderate members of his own caucus to rethink their precarious stances and, most likely, forced their hand to come out against the overall plan.

So why would Reid risk it all? He’s a political calculator. He must know the public option can’t survive, no matter how strongly he wills it to be so. Surely he’s not so tied to the special interests of the left that he would proffer this lead balloon, only to further erode Democrat popularity with the electorate.

One theory circulating around town is Reid knows exactly what he’s doing, and he’s playing the radical left to get his way. If you do the math, the votes simply aren’t there. Additionally, there are no new arguments or cost estimates to change that equation. The public option is too much, too soon, and too heavy-handed, with virtually no promise of a benefit greater than the current coverage 85 percent of Americans enjoy today.

No amount of presidential spin or Pelosi puckering at her pen and pads can change that dynamic. So Reid’s gambit now becomes one of showing to his Democratic base he made a good-faith effort and it cannot win the day. Once he does that, he can then turn to more serious legislative proposals and find some common ground. When the wingnuts rail against his efforts, Reid simply responds, “We tried it your way, and it won’t work. Are you so committed to the public option that you would rather see nothing pass?” The White House has certainly answered that question in the negative. Now all that remains is for Reid go through the motions with his caucus.

It’s an interesting risk, but the one enemy working against him and his allies is the elusive Father Time. Reid’s now running out of that in far greater quantities than votes.

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