With or without O’Reilly, Fox is going to keep beating its competitors

An old French philosopher once said, “The more things change, the more they remain the same.”

That’s what to expect in the cable news world, even with the departure of long-time Fox News ratings king, Bill O’Reilly. Some analysts and anti-Fox News Channel critics have asserted the O’Reilly shakeup will send the channel into a ratings spiral. That’s not going to happen.

{mosads}Sure, O’Reilly had the number one show in all of cable news for much of FNC’s twenty year history. But FNC’s hold on its viewers goes deeper than 8:00 p.m. Eastern time. Loyal O’Reilly viewers won’t suddenly be sampling MSNBC or CNN.

O’Reilly’s exit does, however, provide more challenge for FNC brass than the earlier prime time departures of Megyn Kelly, Greta Van Susteren, and even Brit Hume when he left Special Report. O’Reilly’s show, planted in the middle of the evening lineup, was a tent pole to prop up the other shows. He provided the lead-in to Kelly, and later, Tucker Carlson, who benefited from audience flow.

O’Reilly was so highly regarded by Fox corporate that he was selected to the pre-Super Bowl presidential interviews when Fox Sports broadcast the game. FNC now has a marketing challenge to maintain their loyal viewers and convince O’Reilly loyalists, of whom there are many, that the channel has not lost its news compass. Expect to see a great deal of audience maintenance promotion strategies rolled out in the coming weeks, both on the air and in other venues.

Fox News should ultimately emerge from this turmoil with similar ratings and image. O’Reilly’s replacement at 8 PM, Tucker Carlson, has proven to be an audience generator at 9 PM. His style is less pointed than O’Reilly’s, but it is clear that Carlson is speaking to the right leaning and/or moderate viewers who sit in the FNC audience daily. Carlson is less likely to show the on-air emotion O’Reilly did on occasion, but he asks hard-hitting questions of guests, and holds their feet to the fire. Carlson’s news agenda is quite similar to O’Reilly’s, and often features culture warrior topics that should appeal to O’Reilly viewers.

The reshaping of FNC’s prime time has surely been on the minds of FNC executives for some time. Reports indicate O’Reilly had just received a contract extension from FNC, but at age 67, he couldn’t have been part of the long term game plan. This current controversy just gave the Murdoch family, which oversees the corporate front office, the opportunity to move more quickly with a process that was inevitable anyway. FNC will try to keep as many O’Reilly viewers as possible, and hope Carlson and the newly slotted “The Five” at 9 PM can lure the younger viewers that advertisers value.

Placing “The Five” at 9 PM is the riskier part of the FNC strategy. The show’s gabby nature was more suited for its late afternoon time slot. Prime time shows normally feature a single, strong host, whereas “The Five” features an ensemble of talkers. Further, “The Five” is more casual, features more humor, and often drifts into less newsy matters. The new time slot gives personalities such as Kimberly Guilfoyle, Dana Perino, and “O’Reilly Factor” refugee Jesse Watters the opportunity to shine, but prime time is a different arena than late afternoon. A major concern for “The Five” at 9 PM is whether the older viewers who dominated the audience in the earlier 5 PM time slot will follow the show to late evening.

The main thing FNC has going for it as it retools post-O’Reilly is that competitors CNN and MSNBC are already well known, and rejected, by the FNC viewing audience. CNN’s Anderson Cooper has been entrenched with modest ratings for more than a decade on prime time. MSNBC’s narrowcasting crew of Chris Hayes and Rachel Maddow represent the kind of left-leaning journalism that helped FNC gain traction in the first place. Maddow has enjoyed an audience boost in recent months with her anti-Trump blasts, but that growth didn’t come at the expense of FNC. And one must wonder if Maddow’s “We hate Trump” message has staying power through an entire presidential term, or two.

In short, O’Reilly or not, FNC viewers have little choice but to stick with the channel if they want news done the way they like it. Those who do bolt FNC will be tuning to ball games, or just turning off the television to read a book.

Jeffrey McCall (@Prof_McCall) is a professor of communication at DePauw University.

The views expressed by contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.