The 2016 election undermined many political conventions: the accuracy of polling; the need to tightly control campaign messaging; the central role of paid television advertising; and the existence of battle-tested pundits who really know what will happen in the big races.
In the aftermath of the disgrace of the political coverage of the race, no one was discredited more than the so-called political experts whose mocking condescension obfuscated the real story happening across the country. There was a spontaneous revolt, not tightly aligned to party or to ideology, but rather a reaction to the degradation of America. The pundit class mostly missed the revolt, and still believes November was more of an aberration than the beginning of a different political order.
{mosads}Just as the media coverage of the Trump campaign was off, so too is the coverage of his administration. If I had one piece of advice as each of us tries to make sense of a curious White House that is still finding its rhythm, do not make the mistake of following the conventional wisdom. No American follows the conventional wisdom less than Donald Trump and, as we have seen, he rather enjoys knocking it on its cheeks.
The smart-set covering the swamp has made the following conclusions:
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The White House is in chaos and is broken into factions with no clear policy direction.
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Steve Bannon and, more importantly, conservative policies will soon be shown the door.
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The major casualty of the bombings in Syria and Afghanistan is Trump’s “America First” posture.
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Goldman Sachs is now firmly running economic policy and so Janet Yellen, China, and the Export-Import Bank are all now in the clear.
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Trump policies are so unpopular that Republicans in Congress are distancing themselves from the president and several special elections are in jeopardy.
All of these conclusions from yet another week dominated by the decisions of and leaks from the Trump White House should be studied with a high degree of skepticism. There is no doubt that the president is having to quickly learn about the politics of governing and the ways which bring success and the ways that don’t. It is also undeniable that the president has surrounded himself with a diverse set of advisers who have deep-seated disagreements on fundamental issues.
To make sense of the mindset of Republican and conservative voters and what it means for Donald Trump, the Republican Party, and the state of our politics, consider the recent special election in Kansas.
I started out in politics in that district and ran a couple of races for Todd Tiahrt in the 1990’s. My entire family lives in Wichita, which is the largest city in the district and the state, and my mom served two terms on the Wichita City Council. When the race tightened, it caused a near panic in D.C. GOP circles. But what the coverage of the race missed is that, in many ways, its tightening was a proxy for how volatile the Trump/GOP coalition is.
The race moved from trending toward a steady-if-not-impressive GOP victory to losable, mostly due to the failure of Republicans in the House to demonstrate to its own partisans that they had a healthcare plan, fine-tuned over 6 years of political fights, which could convince Americans that the GOP knows how to solve this vexing problem.
The numbers are stark: Before Speaker Ryan’s plan was announced, according to the campaign’s internal polling, the GOP nominee Ron Estes enjoyed a 52-29 lead over his liberal Democrat opponent Jim Thompson. After the Speaker, in conjunction with the president, pulled the GOP health care bill on March 24, Estes started to slide. There seemed to be no easy answer for this proven, state-wide elected, reliable vote-getter.
Many ardent conservatives thought Speaker Ryan’s replacement plan was unimaginative and too reliant on government spending and guarantees. Other conservatives were upset that Congress was weakening the new president. When Estes went back into the field right after the bill’s failure the race tightened with Estes dropping below 50 and his opponent picking up 4 points. As the dynamics in the race deteriorated, they returned to the field the following week and learned that it was now a margin of error race.
Smart GOP leaders in Kansas are worried that D.C. Republicans will learn the wrong lessons from this race that almost got away. They fear it will be blamed solely on the candidate, or the political standing of Governor Brownback, or the impact of President Trump’s White House drama.
Ron Estes pulled out a well-deserved victory not in spite of Trump/Pence, but in many ways because they engaged in the final 10 days.
Republicans face real danger if they conclude incorrectly that staying close to the new administration will harm them. In fact, it is the opposite. They need to work closely with the president to even out the rough times and to make sure that on taxes, government reform, and also on health care, failure is not an option. If President Trump fails to get legislation on the major issues he ran on, he will be damaged and the GOP majorities will be punished politically. In the end, the president can probably run against a dysfunctional Congress, but the Republicans in Congress will only be able to make the case for keeping its majority if it can prove that it was what allowed a new agenda to pass.
I am proud of Ron Estes for persevering in a tough race at a difficult time. He is a good man who will represent Kansas and its conservative values well. But his biggest role is to help his colleagues understand that the electorate, even in ruby red Kansas, expects results.
Matt Schlapp is chairman of the American Conservative Union and CPAC. He was the White House political director to former President George W. Bush.
The views expressed by contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.