The class of the 112th Congress

Over the last four decades, there have been four huge classes of incoming freshmen
members of the House that are historically notable.

The class of 1974 swooped in as Watergate caved in around Richard Nixon, and
with it came a liberal sensibility that smashed the seniority system, opened up
the political process, changed the campaign finance laws, reformed the budget
process and put the intelligence community on notice that the Congress no
longer had its back.

Twenty years later, the class of 1994 came in with a conservative sensibility
in reaction to the first two years of Bill Clinton, and that group similarly
smashed the seniority system, audited the House’s books for the first time in
history, professionalized the management of the institution, balanced the
budget for the first time in three decades, passed welfare reform and ushered
in a long period of Republican dominance.

Twelve years after that, Nancy Pelosi and Rahm Emanuel took back the House. Emanuel
built the majority tactically, piece by piece, by finding dozens of conservative
to moderate Blue Dog Democrats who would vote for Pelosi for Speaker but talk
like a Republican back home. Pelosi promised to drain the swamp of corruption,
and then embarked on a “progressive” wish list, which most notably included an
increase in the minimum wage. While Emanuel was trying to rebuild the old
Democratic coalition of liberals, moderates and conservatives, Pelosi governed
the House as a liberal, and when President Obama was elected, she pushed
through her agenda that promised more government control over the energy and healthcare
marketplaces.

The difference between the class of 1974 and the class of 2006 for Pelosi was
that in 1974, the country was much more liberal than it is today. Richard Nixon
governed as a liberal on domestic policy, imposing price controls at one point,
creating new government agencies and generally ignoring other conservative
issues. Pelosi, whose sensibility dates back from the class of 1974 (her
closest confidant is George Miller, a liberal congressman from California and
one of the most aggressive members from that class), thought that she could
walk the walk of 1974, while her more moderate colleagues could talk the talk
of 1994.

But that was a misjudgment. Both Mrs. Pelosi and Mr. Obama misread where the
people were on the issue of change. As Denny Hastert likes to say, the people
wanted change they could believe in. They didn’t want to change what they
believed in.

And what they believe is that government is too big and spends too much. They
believe that Washington is broken and fixing it doesn’t mean making it more
powerful. And they also believe that it takes more than lofty rhetoric to fix
the problems that face the economy.

So the people decided the send Washington a message in this last election. They
took the advice of Republicans and fired Nancy Pelosi as their Speaker of the
House. They sent a new class of mostly Republicans to fix the mess in Washington.

While much has been said about the stridency of some of these members, the fact
is that an overwhelming majority of them have a great deal of political
experience. Fifty-six of 82 the new Republican class had previous political
experience, including five former members who decided to come back. They are
geographically diverse, with about half of them coming from states that are
north of the Mason-Dixon line. About a third of them are Roman Catholic, making
the mostly Protestant caucus more religiously diverse. Slightly more than half
of the class was born in the 1960s and 1970s, which means that while there are
some young members, there are also plenty of members who have plenty of
experience under their belt.

About 52 of the new Republican freshmen are really going to have to worry about
redistricting back home. Their states are either losing seats or gaining them. The
ones that have political experience are going to have a leg up on those who
don’t. Republicans will have the pen in redrawing 195 seats, while Democrats
will have the power in only 45 seats, but that doesn’t mean the new freshmen
are out of the woods. Republicans also picked up 680 state legislative seats,
twice the number Democrats picked up two years ago. That means that a lot of
ambitious people are going to want a chance to move up.

Getting rid of earmarks, which seems to be the way the Republicans are
trending, means that many of these new arrivals aren’t going to have any bacon
to bring home to make their job at redistricting any easier. Luckily for
Republicans, they have the pen in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio, places where
seats are going to disappear. Unluckily, they don’t have the pen in New York,
Illinois and California, and that will cause problems for the new arrivals from
those states.

Republicans are already being whipsawed by the various Tea Party groups
claiming credit for the Republican triumph. Conservative groups like the Heritage
Foundation are trying to make certain that only the most conservative staffers
get hired. It is highly likely that many of these new members will bring in
their campaign staffs, but that is probably not the best idea. The most
important staff person in any office tends to be the rock-star caseworker back
home, who understands how to handle the Washington bureaucracy and who knows
how to handle constituents with a smile and with some empathy. Hopefully, many
of these newcomers understand the value of an effective office back in the
district.

Most members of the new class are energized by the mandate sent to them by the
voters. Understanding that mandate, though, is essential to being able to
achieve it.

I am pretty confident that many of these new members will get it. They will
understand that they are being sent here to do a professional job, to represent
their constituents and to bring change to Washington. They may be willing to
take tough votes, but I don’t think that many of them are interested in taking politically
suicidal votes.

The House Republican leadership doesn’t want this class to be a bunch of
one-hit wonders. They want them to stay around a while. Some outside activists
are already telling these new members to ignore their leaders and go their own.
I don’t that this is sound advice. House Republicans leaders have a vested
interest in this new class’s success. The more they all work together, the more
they will get done in the long term.

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