For GOP in 2016, looking forward or in rearview mirror?

The single most important factor in the ultimate success of the GOP nominee for president in 2016 will be whether the voters view his or her candidacy through the windshield or the rearview mirror. Clearly, the American people are once again hoping for change and evermore weary of the status quo. Washington’s dysfunction continues, so Americas are restless and eager for a new beginning.

Even more than gender, geography, executive experience versus legislative, name recognition or bloodline, the final nod will go to the person who represents and articulates the future and not the past. We pretty much know who the Democrats will nominate and how she will measure up on this front, but the big question is in the hands of the GOP faithful.

{mosads}Years before I was a Republican congressman, I was a GOP activist. My experience at the precinct level and through several tiers of leadership within the GOP tells me that if Republican voters give the nomination to anyone because “it’s their turn” or if they flirt with a “retread,” the nominee will lose decisively and possibly dash any hope of a national victory for the next two decades.

One positive development is that the field is already large and relatively diverse. Since anointing the GOP nominee has not worked well in the past, Republicans relish a new person and a fresh start.

Because the field is wide and growing, this column’s limits will not allow commentary on all of the potential contenders, even though several deserve great praise and a few deserve a boot. Therefore, I wish to contrast both ends of the spectrum, on the future and the past.” Of the candidates that represent the past, former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.) may be the winner. To begin with, his rhetoric is tired and his pandering is old. The retread award of this cycle goes to Huckabee. Only the likely Democratic nominee rivals him in this category.

On the other end of the spectrum, the candidate who best represents the future (not only for the GOP, but also for America) is Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.). He is an ordinary person with an extraordinary story. He has passion and vision. At 44 years old, his youth and energy will draw enthusiasm from the base and appeal from the expanding middle. He is a solid conservative, but not wild in his approach. His platform on matters of foreign and domestic policy is the most clear and compelling of any candidate from either party thus far. Rubio’s conservative bona fides in the Senate are rock solid. The two voter groups likely to swing the general election outcome in 2016 are Latinos and millennials (people 35 and under, who represent the largest generation in the U.S.). These groups are expected to vote in record numbers in 2016. On both fronts, Hispanic, youthful — yet experienced — Rubio has an appeal unrivaled in the field.

Thankfully, the field also includes other candidates with certain appeal to nontraditional GOP base voters, creating optimism that our nominee will prevail next year.

And anyone who thinks that if the GOP base will just vote, then the Republican nominee will just win, needs to think again. Neither party’s base is large enough to win a national election by itself anymore. Our nominee must speak to the growing number of independent voters and articulate a clear vision for the new American agenda in the 21st century.

If you like politics, the 2016 presidential election sets up to be one for the ages. Pull up to the flat screen or log onto your computer and enjoy the fireworks.

Wamp was a member of Congress from 1995 to 2011 and is president of Zach Wamp Consulting.