Beware of early predictions for 2016

Long before the actual voting starts in every presidential election, pundits and politicos are always quick to assert, with rock-solid certainty, that Candidate A “can’t win” or Candidate B “can’t lose.” But the list of presidential candidates who were prematurely pronounced losers throughout history is long. To name a few: Richard Nixon in 1968, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1980, Bill Clinton in 1992 and even Barack Obama in 2008. On the flip side, one-time cinches that ultimately lost include such notables as Sen. Ed Muskie (D-Maine) in 1972, Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) in 1980, former Gov. Howard Dean (D-Vt.) in 2004 and then-Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) in 2008.

{mosads}Pundits and politicos think about elections all the time. They’re ready to crown winners and losers in June, and they think voters are, too. But voters aren’t ready. In a way, voters view presidential elections through kaleidoscopes. At certain moments they focus, give it a turn — and then everything changes.

If I had been paid five dollars every time an all-knowing expert make an erroneous prediction during the 2012 Republican nomination contest, I’d have enough money to start my own super-PAC. Early on, more than a few wise heads expected then-Rep. Michelle Bachmann (Minn.) to sweep the race. Then, a series of 15-minute frontrunners were proclaimed — then-Gov. Rick Perry (Texas), businessman Herman Cain, former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) and former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.). In the end, former Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.), the guy who had been discounted multiple times by smart observers, nabbed the nomination.

Educated predictions are always welcome. But when half-baked prophecies are pronounced with resolute sureness before voters even have had a chance to give an election their first good look, they are to be taken lightly.

To now say with certitude that Hillary Clinton can’t lose (or win) is silly. To write off former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-Fla.) or Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is a little hasty. To decree Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) or Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis.) the sure winner, before they’re tested in national combat, is rash.

Republican nomination polls show candidates scattered about, without a discernible top tier. It’s a race that has yet to be waged. Expect voters to give it a serious look within the next month or so, after all the candidates have entered. Then, in early 2016, voters will give it another hard look as we move toward Iowa and New Hampshire. Each time the kaleidoscope shifts, candidate prospects can scramble.

So the next time somebody says that a candidate “can’t win” or “can’t lose,” just remember: After they’ve been proven wrong, they’ll deny ever having said it.

Faucheux is president of Clarus Research Group, a nonpartisan polling firm. He is a former publisher of Campaigns & Elections magazine.