Does the Sanders ‘surge’ shut down in more diverse primary states?

Conventional wisdom says “The Bern” is surging. He has, in all his curmudgeonly glory, become something of a Trump-esque equivalent for the left, an evolving thorn in the side of a Clinton machine-led Democratic establishment that thought it could largely avoid a slug-it-out primary tempest.

{mosads}At the moment, a stay-tuned narrative says it won’t. It’s not as much a circus as the unfolding spectacle on the Republican side, but we could see juicy moments on the horizon as Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) go head-to-head in scheduled debates and initial primaries. Everyone’s bracing for a 2008 redux in Iowa and New Hampshire as Sanders appears to push ahead in New Hampshire; he’s at 44 to Clinton’s 37 percent in a recent Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll. But that’s not surprising, since the state is part of his base New England market. Clinton might be ahead in Iowa, but Sanders is coming up from behind in a CNN/ORC poll, at 31 percent to her 50 percent as a first choice; as a second choice, he has 21 percent to Clinton’s 29 percent.

The problem for Sanders, however, is that the deeper into the primary schedule he gets, the more voters of color he loses.

Without them, he’s stuck. There is always that off chance he’ll throw over the apple cart and disrupt the Democratic primary the same way Barack Obama did in 2008. Iowa can be especially unpredictable (smiling in your face and stuffing you down with corn dogs one day, then stabbing you in the electoral back the next). New Hampshire has always had a thing for mavericks.

But Iowa and New Hampshire are also among the whitest states in the Union: Iowa at 3.3 percent African-American and 5.5 percent Latino; New Hampshire at 1.5 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. These might be key states because of where they place on the calendar, but that doesn’t make them ideal representations of the national electorate, particularly a modern Democratic Party that prides itself on holding a diverse coalition together.

And right now, there’s no mystery around the fact that Sanders has a black voter problem. It’s a steep hill to climb that he appears to have underestimated or at some point ignored. But it’s evident that he’s having challenges finding the black support he needs to get to the convention in Philadelphia. Look closer at overcapacity crowds from Portland, Ore. to Los Angeles and you see packed stadiums with as many black faces in them as there were at last week’s Republican debate in Cleveland.

Now it’s not like black voters don’t notice Sanders, because when they do, he gets somewhat decent favorability ratings from them — 27 percent in the latest The Economist/YouGov poll – but still, 44 percent just don’t know him. In a June Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll, 44 percent of black voters show some support.

Ultimately, in the end, it’s Clinton who gets about 66 percent and 90 percent black favorability, respectively, in those same The Economist/YouGov and PPP polls above (even if she’ll need more than that in the general depending on the climate). That doesn’t bode well for Sanders at this rate. In a Fox News poll, 59 percent of nonwhite voters favor Clinton, compared to only 9 percent for Sanders.

Despite any impression of a Sanders surge and possible wins in places like Iowa and New Hampshire, he is more than likely stuck once he arrives in states with populations that are over 10 percent black and teaming with active black Democratic political machines: places like South Carolina, North Carolina, Alabama and Arkansas. Iowa and New Hampshire are the first, sure, but they’re not bastions of diversity. The further down the primary calendar you go, the less white and less fervently liberal you get.

Maybe that changes if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire and, suddenly, he’s got the kind of name gravitas he needs to get crucial minority support. Maybe voter ID and other restrictions in some states depress minority turnout enough so that Sanders inadvertently benefits from the kind of legislation he opposes and picks off Clinton support at the margins. Perhaps his recent damage control moves — naming a black national campaign press secretary while unveiling ambitious “fight inequality” and “environmental justice” platforms — get voters of color, especially black voters, to notice him if he pulls off early primary upsets.

But, contrary to the quiet hopes of those who don’t like it, all of the above is theory when the staying power of the black vote is still reality. Eventually, black voters will determine where the nomination wind blows and who catches it. At the moment, the outlook for Sanders — as exciting as it might seem now — is still a bit flat.

Ellison is a veteran political strategist and a contributor for The Hill. He is a contributing editor for The Root and Washington correspondent for The Philadelphia Tribune. He can be reached on Twitter @ellisonreport.