There is a lot riding on tonight’s second GOP primary debate on CNN, with the third quarter fundraising deadline just two weeks away.
It’s been nearly six weeks since the last debate and the next one is five weeks away.
Here’s what each candidate needs to accomplish tonight.
Donald Trump: Trump is in a much stronger position for tonight’s debate than he was for the first debate, with his national polling lead growing substantially, as well as his lead in all three early states. He should expect a lot of incoming fire tonight; how he handles each interaction will foretell a lot about his future. He will have to offer greater specifics tonight than ever before and he will be pressed on foreign policy and national security. Will he pass the test? Tonight’s goal: no harm.
{mosads}Ben Carson: Carson’s rise over the past month has surprised many, but it is easy to explain: He has the highest net favorability of any candidate in either party. He will be treated as a first-tier candidate tonight and will need to show that he deserves it. He should not change his laid-back style, but he should be prepared for tough questions and will need to avoid major gaffes on national security that might disqualify him. Tonight’s goal: survival.
Former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.): Bush has had a cruel summer and Trump is living rent-free in his head. Doubts are growing that he is a strong enough candidate to make the finals with Trump. Tonight, he needs to show campaign skill and fire in the belly. He should really hammer home his record as governor, which was conservative and strong. Many of his supporters are growing restless. Tonight’s goal: win the debate.
Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas): Cruz is quietly very well positioned. He is ready to accept most of Trump’s supporters if Trump flames out and he remains a very real threat in Iowa and South Carolina. Look for him to continue to cast himself as the only principled and unapologetic conservative in the race. Can he start a grass-roots revolution? Tonight’s goal: hit a stand-up double.
Gov. Scott Walker (Wis.): No candidate has had a worse summer than Walker, who has been bleeding support in Iowa and nationally. He’s released several good policy proposals in the past week and is the only candidate with a real ObamaCare alternative. He should showcase this focus on policy tonight and remind GOP primary voters that he has been a winner. He will need to be near-perfect. Tonight’s goal: get your mojo back.
Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.): Rubio was perfect in the first debate and that is a high standard. Will someone press him on his Gang of Eight immigration bill? He will shine on foreign policy, as he is the most knowledgeable in the field. Rubio is the future, but the question is when. He wants to outlast Bush and become the establishment front-runner who conservatives can accept. Tonight’s goal: another perfect game.
Carly Fiorina: No one will be watched more closely than Fiorina. She is expected to go after Trump and she will take a lot of fire from him about her record as a CEO of Hewlett-Packard. She is not to be underestimated. Her ability to say exactly what she wants in a compelling and sharp way is unmatched. She is introducing herself to millions of GOP voters tonight for the first time. I predict she will be the biggest winner. Tonight’s goal: achieve escape velocity.
Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.): Huckabee quickly pounced on the Kentucky gay marriage situation and tonight he will again seek to retain his position as the undisputed leader of social conservatives. Look for him to also talk in detail about his knowledge of Israel. He needs to regain the likability that he had in 2008. Tonight’s goal: be solid.
Gov. John Kasich (Ohio): He won’t have the hometown crowd tonight. Kasich needs to hide his angry side and continue to shine a light on his accomplishments as governor, his compassion for the less fortunate and his strong knowledge of defense policy. Tonight’s goal: outperform Bush.
Gov. Chris Christie (N.J.): Christie has been getting lost a bit, in spite of his worthy focus on policy. Look for him to show some fire tonight: think Trump without the babbling. Tonight’s goal: get back into the conversation.
Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.): I have no idea what Paul is even doing anymore. He has been invisible for much of the summer. He is promising to go after Trump, which may get him attention, but I’m not sure how it benefits him. Tonight’s goal: resuscitation.
Mackowiak is syndicated columnist; an Austin, Texas-based Republican consultant; and a former Capitol Hill and George W. Bush administration aide.