Here are some things we learned last night about the campaign:
- Democratic Hispanic voters, especially if they are older, like Hillary a lot more than Obama.
- Republican Evangelical voters like Mike Huckabee and John McCain a lot more than Mitt Romney.
- Northeastern Republican voters, with the possible exception of Massachusetts, like John McCain a lot more than Mitt Romney.
- Speaking of Massachusetts, from the Democratic perspective, it is better to get the endorsement of the mayor of Boston than it is to get the endorsement of the Kennedy family, at least in that state.
- Anti-immigration voters like Mitt Romney more than they like John McCain or Mike Huckabee, but at the end of the day, that doesn’t really matter as much as we all thought.
- For Democrats, the whiter the state, the more they like Barack Obama. The more African-Americans there are in a state, the more they like Barack Obama. The more ethnic the state, the more they like Hillary Clinton (Illinois doesn’t count).
- If Mitt Romney lived, worked or has a lot of his fellow Mormons in a state, he will win it. Otherwise, he is probably not going to win it.
- John McCain and Hillary Clinton both won California, New York, New Jersey, Florida and Arizona. They are the bi-coastal candidates.
- These delegate rules are really stupid, especially on the Democratic side.
And here are some things we learned about the campaigns.
- Obama’s team got outfoxed by the Clinton team. The media adulation of the Obama campaign gave it an impossibly high bar to cross. It needs to get a better hold of the expectations game.
- Huckabee and McCain are having fun screwing the Romney campaign.
- The Democratic primary is going to take a while to sort itself out, and those delegates in Michigan and Florida are going to loom larger and larger.
And here is a prediction (and keep in mind, I am usually wrong):
- John McCain will select Mike Huckabee as his vice presidential nominee. Hillary Clinton will pick Barack Obama as her vice presidential nominee.