Trump must avoid an ‘Aleppo moment’ in first debate

Republican nominee Donald Trump is, if anything else, a master showman. And in the weeks leading up to the highly anticipated first presidential debate at Hofstra University, this has been in full display in the gusto and bravado that we have come to expect from the presidential hopeful.

From scoffing at overpreparing and criticizing the moderator for being biased, Trump has been masterfully lowering expectations before the critical first debate that is expected to attract more than 100 million eyeballs.

{mosads}But with so much at stake, it would be a mistake of epic proportions if behind Trump’s overconfident exterior, he and his team were not diligently preparing for this important test. That’s because this first debate is unlike anything Trump has had to confront in the Republican primary or in the general election.

For one, the format does not lend itself easily to sound bites and one-liners. On this, Trump is in a league of his own. For months, Trump has been perfecting the art of giving a broadcast interview in his own way. From calling in to television shows and thus having an upper hand from the interviewer, to the way he will contradict himself in the span of two minutes in an interview to muddy the waters, Trump almost always seems to come out unscathed from even the harshest interviews.

There are exceptions, of course. Think Trump telling MSNBC’s Chris Matthews that women who undergo abortion procedures should face criminal charges. But even when he completely bombs an interview, Trump knows that he can blame the liberal media for gotcha questions and taking his answers out of context, finding sympathetic ears among his strongest supporters.

But as the first debate nears, the rules of the game have changed. The biggest obstacle for Trump is the 90-minute, no-break format that provides for little reprieve from a barrage of questions and the need to focus on Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s every answer when not in the spotlight. During the Republican primary, Trump and his aides worked behind the scenes to limit the length of some of the debates. After complaining about the possibility that a debate could run past the two-hour mark, Trump is quoted as have saying: “How long is ‘Gone with the Wind’?”

Trump will have no luck by the time he steps out on the stage at Hofstra on Monday. He will need to have the stamina, discipline and focus to perform adequately on the debate stage with one of the best debaters to run for the office of the presidency.

Clinton is a masterful debater and steeped deep in policy. Her challenge is not so much knowing the issues, but coming across as someone who can relate to everyday Americans. Her husband had this ability and showed it on the debate stage in the 1992 presidential election when President George H.W. Bush flubbed the response as to whether he had been personally impacted by the national debt and economic downturn. Then-Gov. Bill Clinton (D-Ark.) directly and passionately spoke to the audience member citing stories of factory workers he personally knew who had been laid off as proof of understanding the brunt of an economic crisis.

Trump’s challenge is different. Rather than coming across as someone relatable and being an agent of change, Trump must demonstrate that he is adequately knowledgeable about a broad cross-section of public policy issues. This will mean avoiding a Rick Perry gaffe of forgetting which agencies he would eliminate if he was president, but also being better prepared to answer deeply technical questions about public policy in ways that don’t typically come up in a run-of-the-mill television or radio interview.

Trump has already struggled to answer foreign policy questions in the past and they could prove troublesome once again. The campaign must know that if he stumbles on an answer, the clip will be played in a continuous loop the following day, eclipsing whatever good moments he may have had on the debate stage.

Much to the dismay of the Clinton campaign, Trump has lowered the bar for a successful debate performance. A moderately successful Trump debate performance means not saying something completely outlandish and ridiculous that he disqualifies himself from the office of the presidency. This, of course, is not a “gimme” given his brashness and lack of self-restraint.

But if Trump finds himself in a deer-caught-in-the-headlight moment Monday night similar to Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson when asked what he would do about Aleppo, it will only reinforce the perception that Trump is ill-prepared and unsuitable for the office of the presidency and to beleader of the free world.

Trump can win this debate if he puts in the time to become conversational on policy for 90 minutes. For a master showman who is used to performing on a big national stage, it’s entirely possible and even enough to convince the remaining undecided voters that he has what it takes to become our next president.

Ortega is a senior writer for Opportunity Lives. You can follow him on Twitter @IzzyOrtega.

The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the views of The Hill.