Virtually every insider and analyst associated with both parties believes that Hillary Clinton will be elected president this Election Day. Even Donald Trump seems to believe that Clinton will win — he’s donated very little of his own money to his campaign in October, and has spent so much time trying to claim the election is rigged to begin to make excuses if he loses.
Warning to Democrats: Beware of overconfidence. Beware of taking voters for granted. Voters do not like being taken for granted.
In my last column, about the epic battle for the future of Congress, I noted that the result in Senate and House races will be greatly affected by the final results at the top of the ticket. The most likely outcome, in my view, is the probability that Clinton wins with a margin of 1-5 points, at about 55 percent. The probability that Clinton wins with a margin of 6-12 points is about 30 percent. The probability that Trump wins is about 15 percent.
{mosads}It would be a major mistake for any Democratic candidate or operative to believe that the election is over and that Clinton is the inevitable winner.
The fact is, on a given day we can see one poll that shows Clinton ahead by 7, or 10, or 12 points, while on the same day we see showing the former first lady ahead by only 2 to 3 points, within the margin of error. I have never seen such volatility in polling in any presidential campaign in recent decades.
With polls varying so widely, so often, something is going on with polling this year that makes the final election result hard to predict beyond assigning probabilities. The polls showing Clinton ahead by huge margins could be right; polls showing Trump within striking distance could also be right. Democrats should operate under the assumption that the polls showing the GOP nominee performing strongly could turn out to be right, even if that event is unlikely.
There are also polls that show Clinton within striking range in red states such as Georgia and even Texas. There have been recent multiple polls showing her within 2 to 4 points in the Lone Star State. It is highly unlikely that Clinton makes a serious run to carry Texas, but multiple polls showing the same unlikely result are hard to be ignore. Republicans should be worried about this.
At the same time, repeated polls suggest that Trump has a realistic chance of carrying Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Nevada and other key states. Democrats should be worried about this.
It is also impossible to predict news flow in the final days of the campaign. It would not surprise me if there is major negative news that is revealed between now and Election Day against both candidates. There might or might not be major negative news about Clinton from WikiLeaks or another source. There might or might not be major negative news about Trump, from a second rumored video involving women or investigative exposes from other sources.
Democrats have to assume the possibility that the national polls showing a close national race and a possible Trump victory in Florida, Ohio and other states could all turn out to be right.
Republicans have to assume the possibility that polls showing a Clinton landslide could turn out to be right, which is one reason major Republican groups and super PACs have been directing more money to save Republican seats in the Senate and House.
This is a year when the voters are right and the experts are wrong. Who would have predicted the surges by Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump when the campaign first began? The problem analysts face today is that we do not know what the voters want when choosing between two candidates who are so widely disliked.
Make no mistake, this is a very strange year and anything can happen. Hillary Clinton is the prohibitive favorite and could well win a landslide, but Donald Trump can still win this election.
Voters who stay home on Election Day because they believe the race is already over may live to regret it, whether they are Clinton voters who believe the election is won or Trump voters who believe the election is lost.
Budowsky was an aide to former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) and former Chief Deputy Majority Whip Bill Alexander (D-Ark.). He holds an LL.M. degree in international financial law from the London School of Economics. Contact him at brentbbi@webtv.net.
The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the views of The Hill.