Beware the Exit Poll

Today I offer this post to voters in both parties: Beware the exit poll.

Based on a model from the primaries, Barack Obama supporters are eager to answer exit polls, and can tend to skew them his way. As a result, according to Michael Barone’s helpful piece on the subject, he came out of primary elections with less actual support than exit polls indicated he received.

While pollers seek a fair representation of gender and age, only 50 percent of voters agree to participate in exit polling, according to Barone. The enthusiasm gap tends to shape the results. “It seems likely that Obama voters — more enthusiastic about their candidate than Clinton voters by most measures (like strength of support in poll questions) — were more likely to fill out the exit poll forms and drop them in the box,” wrote Barone.

If Hillary’s supporters didn’t want to fill out exit polls, then John McCain supporters aren’t any more likely to, by any stretch. So no one — supporters or McCain or Obama — should place too much stock in what they hear at 5 p.m. when the exit polling data starts flowing. My advice is to turn down the volume and turn it back up at 7 p.m. when they have counted Indiana. That is when the evening truly begins.

SEE YOU THURSDAY WHEN ASK A.B. RETURNS TO WRAP THE ELECTION — Please send your questions and comments to askab@digital-release.thehill.com to join my weekly video Q & A. I look forward to seeing you then. Thank you.