Iowa Predictions — Caveats Included

I can predict winners and percentages in elections about as well as I can operate on the inner ear, repair a Hummer, or even make a decent Béarnaise sauce. However, I am joining my fellow bloggers and throwing my hat into the ring so it can be tossed about for laughs tomorrow. Please read to the end since my reasoning follows the numbers. And the reasoning is more reasonable than the numbers because it contains caveats … of course!

IOWA:

Clinton: 30
Edwards: 29
Obama: 27

Huckabee: 32
Romney: 31
McCain: 19

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Clinton: 38
Obama: 35
Edwards: 18

Romney: 28
McCain: 26
Paul: 25

I believe John Edwards has a great chance of coming in first tonight in Iowa and I went back and forth over him and Hillary Clinton for first place. I ultimately chose Clinton because I think undecided voters will spend more time considering how frightening the world is than how much hope Obama inspires or how much they love the fight in John Edwards during their cold ride to caucusing. Yes, past caucuses tell us that Iowans place a premium on electability. The Clintons have played the fear card, subtly but capably I believe, to sell Hillary as the stable choice in what they are promising will be an unstable future. It is a 2-for-1 deal again; Bill Clinton delivered the message to let voters know the co-presidency would be back and he would be close to those terrifying decisions. I think voters are going to be eager to buy it. The outcome lies not only in turnout but in the second-tier supporters. Anyone supporting Bill Richardson, Joe Biden or Chris Dodd must make a second choice tonight when almost surely his or her candidate fails to meet the 15 percent viability threshold. We all know if these people liked Clinton they would have picked her long ago. And a new Reuters poll shows second-tier supporters choose Edwards first by 30 percent, Obama next by 22 percent and Clinton last with 15 percent. I have begun to think, however, that they too will be swayed in the eleventh hour by the experience argument, since that is why they are supporting Richardson, Dodd and Biden in the first place.

The polls have Obama ahead of course, but he is counting on a swell of young and new caucus-goers — 72 percent of his support — to make it across the finish line. Also, any independents or Republicans wanting to caucus for Obama have to change their voter registration upon entering the precinct. Despite the fact that Obama is said to have the best ground operation, there seem to be too many obstacles to overcome for a first-place finish.

On the Republican side I think the motivated, evangelical supporters of Mike Huckabee are going to caucus for him in droves. But Mitt Romney’s organization, built over many months with many millions, will deliver him a very strong showing and it will be close. I expect John McCain to be third choice but I doubt the percentage will be enthusiastic.

Should Obama win tonight in Iowa, throw BOTH my Democrat and Republican numbers out for New Hampshire! If that happens Clinton goes from being the inevitable candidate to being a loser and Obama an against-all-odds victor. I can’t imagine how Clinton could recover in four days from that loss and overcome the national excitement that would be generated by Obama taking Iowa. If Obama wins it will depress McCain’s support in New Hampshire and likely end his run for the nomination. Anti-war independents are likely to flock from McCain to Obama next week if he is a winner. The best thing for McCain is a Clinton victory tonight.

Finally, if Huckabee wins Iowa I don’t think he’s going much further. More on that in my column this week.

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