Will Trump’s high-stakes gamble cost him the White House?

On Oct. 20, 1973, President Richard Nixon ordered the firing of Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox, who was seeking documents from the White House in his investigation of the Watergate break-in and related cases.

The Attorney General, Elliot L. Richardson, refused to carry out the order and was fired; Deputy Attorney General William D. Ruckelshaus, resigned rather than carry out Nixon’s order. Solicitor General Robert Bork fired Cox, but the investigation did not end. 

The Saturday Night Massacre, as it came to be known, ignited a firestorm that eventually resulted in Nixon’s resignation in the face of near certain impeachment for, among other charges, obstructing justice.

{mosads}President Trump appears to be gambling that, by firing FBI Director James Comey, he can stymie or at least slow, the investigation of possible Trump campaign collusion with Russia in the hacking of the 2016 election. But Trump is really placing four bets: his salesmanship is so good that he can defend the indefensible; he can now close off any viable avenue of investigation; there are no heroes in Washington anymore; and the American public has changed since Watergate.

Betting against Donald Trump’s salesmanship is always risky. 

This is the man who rode the false, racist birther claim to the Republican presidential nomination and then, during the general election, took credit for refuting the birther claim because he was the one who had forced President Barack Obama to disclose his birth certificate.

The same the-public-will-swallow anything cynicism underpins Trump’s claim that he fired Comey for mishandling the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server while she was Secretary of State. Of course, candidate Trump, at least when he had been helped by the Comey’s actions, had praised Comey for the same conduct that President Trump now cites in firing him, such as the announcement just before Election Day that the investigation had been re-opened.

Trump is certainly not likely to appoint an FBI director who will aggressively investigate the Kremlin collusion allegations. In Congress, the House Intelligence Committee’s investigation imploded when its chair, Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA), was forced to step aside over an escapade that involved reading secret intelligence reports at the White House and then holding a press conference to explain their significance.

The Senate Intelligence Committee’s investigation has gotten off to a slow start. A special counsel can only be appointed by the attorney general and therefore such an appointee may be no more independent than the next FBI director.

A special Congressional investigative committee would have a higher profile, but such a committee cannot bring criminal charges.

As to the third bet, let’s just leave it at: there are no heroes in Washington anymore like Richardson and Ruckelshaus, men with a conscience and sense of duty to their country, who would rather be fired or resign than carry out an order that will interfere with a criminal investigation. 

The fourth bet, however, is Trump’s biggest risk. The Saturday Night Massacre created a dynamic that President Nixon proved unable to stop because the public reacted at a gut level. One reaction was that no one, not even a President, should ever interfere with a criminal investigation.

Another was that the Cox firing meant that Nixon really was hiding something. Everyone felt it, even Republicans in Congress, and it became Nixon’s undoing. 

Comey’s firing might provoke a similar reaction since the purported rationale existed on the day that Trump took office and then kept Comey on and the firing comes just seven weeks since Comey first publicly confirmed that the FBI was investigating possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin.

This refutes the White House’s claim that the timing had nothing to do with the collusion investigation. 

If Trump loses this one bet, he could lose his presidency.The open question is whether we have changed so much as a nation in the last 40 years that these kinds of events just don’t resonate anymore.

The public’s response to the Comey firing may soon answer that question.

Gregory J. Wallance is a writer, lawyer and former federal prosecutor. His next book, “The Woman Who Fought An Empire: Sarah Aaronsohn and Her Nili Spy Ring,” is due out in early 2018. Follow on Twitter, @gregorywallance.

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