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US coronavirus deaths could rise to nearly 150,000 by early August, according to leading computer model

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Story at a glance

  • The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation raised its forecast by more than 5,000 fatalities in a matter of days Monday.
  • Researchers did not give a reason for the revision, but it comes as states are rolling back coronavirus restrictions and large-scale protests are taking place across the country following the death of George Floyd.
  • The seven-day average of new coronavirus cases reported in 14 states and Puerto Rico since June 1 has reached record highs, according to The Washington Post.

More than 145,000 coronavirus-related deaths could be recorded in the United States by early August as the country continues to reopen amid the coronavirus outbreak, according to researchers from the University of Washington. 

The widely cited Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) COVID-19 projection extends through Aug. 4, estimating a total of 145,728 COVID-19 deaths Monday, raising the forecast by more than 5,000 fatalities in just days. 


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On Friday, the same model projected 140,496 deaths by early August from COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the coronavirus. Researchers did not give a reason for the revision, but it comes as states are rolling back coronavirus restrictions and large-scale protests are taking place across the country following the death of George Floyd, a black man who died after a Minneapolis police knelt on his neck during an arrest. Health experts have warned there may be another influx in cases following two weeks of nationwide protests that have included thousands of demonstrators. 


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The new estimate also came on the same day Texas reported a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations across the state. The Texas Department of State Health Services reported Monday 1,935 COVID-19 patients currently admitted to state hospitals. That figure surpasses the previous record of 1,888 patients on May 5.

The number of coronavirus cases is dropping in former hot spots such as New York City, which began to reopen this week. However, states like Alaska and Arizona are experiencing a rise in new infections. The seven-day average of new coronavirus cases reported in 14 states and Puerto Rico since June 1 has reached record highs, according to The Washington Post

Data collected and used in the IHME model is diverse, with sources including the World Health Organization, third-party aggregators, and local and national governments. 

The U.S. has marked more than 1.9 million coronavirus cases with more than 111,000 deaths as of Tuesday, according to Johns Hopkins University data.


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