Story at a glance
- Most voters say a reversal of Roe v. Wade will not impact their decision to vote come November 2022, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll.
- But findings illustrate sharp differences in opinion on abortion access based on party affiliation, gender, and age.
- Data also show many young female voters did not hear much about the Supreme Court leak.
Following the leak of a draft decision suggesting the Supreme Court is poised to overturn Roe v Wade, Democrats are scrambling to shore up support before the November 2022 midterm elections with promises to protect a woman’s right to abortion should the court follow through.
To better understand how voters might respond to the Supreme Court’s decision, which is expected in the coming days, the Kaiser Family Foundation conducted a poll of 1,285 U.S. adults.
Although the majority of voters surveyed (57 percent) said a reversal of Roe v. Wade would not affect their likelihood to vote come November, 37 percent of respondents did say the decision would make them more motivated to vote, with opinions split down party lines.
Over half of Democratic voters said a reversal would make them more motivated to vote in midterms, compared with 73 percent of Republican voters who said a reversal would not make a difference in their motivation.
Opinions were split along age and gender lines as well, as one in four young women voters said the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade would motivate them more to vote and that they will only cast their ballot in favor of a canditate who supports abortion rights.
“The findings suggest that a decision to overturn Roe could narrow a midterm voter enthusiasm gap, projected to favor the Republican party over the Democratic party,” authors of the report wrote. The poll was conducted from May 12-19, 2022; news of the draft leak broke on May 2.
However, among women aged 18 to 49, only 23 percent said they had heard a “lot about” the leak, 24 percent said they’ve heard “little” about it, and 23 percent said they’ve heard nothing at all.
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Similar to other national opinion polls, nearly two thirds of voters said they were opposed to overturning Roe, with Democrat and Independent voters making up a large majority of this group. In contrast, 61 percent of Republicans surveyed supported overturning the decision.
However, over half of Republican women under the age of 50 also said they believe abortion should be a personal choice as opposted to regulated by law.
Should the ruling be overturned, 17 states in the country have trigger laws in place that will immediately restrict access to abortion. Although voters are aware of the hurdles these laws would put in place, Republicans were more likely to view limited access as a good thing.
Sixteen states plus Washington, D.C., have already codified the right to an abortion into state law.
“If Roe v. Wade is overturned and many states across the country move to ban or restrict abortion access, people of color, lower-income people, and younger people would be disproportionately impacted by the laws largely due to the high cost of travel to neighboring states,” authors said.
Notably, 79 percent of respondents were against state laws that would criminalize abortion and 80 percent were opposed to laws that permit private citizens to sue those who assist women with the procedure. Eighty percent also opposed criminalizing the crossing of state lines to receive an abortion.
Results also illustrate knowledge gaps among voters when it comes to emergency contraception and medical abortion. Medically-induced abortion is the most common form of the procedure in the U.S. yet 73 percent of women between the ages 18 and 49 surveyed had never heard of medication abortion or mifepristone, first approved in 2000.
With regard to emergency contraception, or the commonly called morning after pill, 73 percent of individuals polled incorrectly believe emergency contraceptive pills can terminate an early pregnancy.
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