Story at a glance
- The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has created a model to project future cases of COVID-19 in the United States.
- The study has not yet been peer reviewed and should not be used to guide clinical practice.
- Projections are based on the assumption that full social distancing measures will be observed through at least May 2020.
A new model predicts coronavirus deaths will have peaked in the United States on April 15, though the research is a preprint, meaning it has not yet been peer reviewed. The peer review process is a vital part of assessing new medical research and identifies weaknesses in its assumptions, methods and conclusions.
Full updated results are available here: COVID-19 Projections.
When a state is chosen under the drop down menu, the infographic projects how many hospital beds, ICU beds, bed shortage (if any) and ventilators may be necessary in each state to address patient need. Local mandates and travel restrictions are reported as well.
So, why release the estimate if it is a preprint? The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said colleagues asked them to develop the models at the university’s school of medicine and soon heard from other hospital systems and state governments.
“Ultimately, these forecasts were developed to provide hospitals, health care workers, policymakers, and the public with crucial information about what demands COVID-19 may place on hospital capacity and resources, so that they could begin to plan,” the IHME wrote.
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The model, published online by IHME, predicts the peak use of hospital resources, including beds, ICU beds and invasive ventilators, for COVID-19 patients in each state. The study used data on confirmed coronavirus deaths from the Word Health Organization (WHO) and local and national governments as well as data on hospital capacity and utilization for each of the states.
While peak dates vary from state to state, the IHME forecasts the national peak for hospital resource use will have been on April 14, assuming that current social distancing measures are observed through May 2020. The next day, according to the model, will have been the peak in deaths for the nation.
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The earliest peak date for hospital resource use is predicted to have been on April 1 in Vermont, while the latest is predicted for May 10 in South Dakota. For COVID-19 deaths, the earliest peak date was April 2 in Florida, while the latest is predicted to be May 12 in South Dakota.
The model also estimates the total number of deaths in each state by August 4. New York is projected to have the most deaths at 21,812, with neighboring New Jersey in second at 6,952 deaths.
After a week of daily updates, the IHME wrote in an update on April 2 that the model has done well in predicting daily deaths. The model has also been updated as stay at home orders are issued across the country and new data becomes available. The initial estimate for total COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. was 81,114 and has increased by less than 1,000 since then to 81,766.
This table was last updated at 6 p.m. on April 24:
| PEAK DAILY DEATHS | PEAK RESOURCE USE | TOTAL ESTIMATED DEATHS BY AUG 4 | |
| United States | April 15 | April 17 | 67,641 |
| Alabama | April 21 | April 21 | 306 |
| Alaska | April 4 | April 23 | 16 |
| Arizona | April 25 | April 22 | 583 |
| Arkansas | April 30 | April 28 | 125 |
| California | April 18 | April 13 | 1719 |
| Colorado | April 21 | April 17 | 719 |
| Connecticut | April 20 | April 21 | 3006 |
| Delaware | April 21 | April 21 | 146 |
| District of Columbia | April 14 | April 21 | 228 |
| Florida | April 2 | April 12 | 1620 |
| Georgia | April 29 | April 28 | 2254 |
| Hawaii | April 11 | April 22 | 20 |
| Idaho | April 15 | April 10 | 64 |
| Illinois | April 18 | April 17 | 2138 |
| Indiana | April 21 | April 22 | 971 |
| Iowa | May 5 | May 4 | 365 |
| Kansas | April 29 | April 20 | 318 |
| Kentucky | April 28 | April 26 | 529 |
| Louisiana | April 14 | April 13 | 1780 |
| Maine | April 15 | April 15 | 51 |
| Maryland | April 20 | April 19 | 1171 |
| Massachussetts | April 19 | April 19 | 4242 |
| Michigan | April 17 | April 12 | 3379 |
| Minnesota | April 24 | April 18 | 360 |
| Mississippi | April 25 | April 22 | 400 |
| Missouri | April 14 | April 22 | 438 |
| Montana | March 30 | April 18 | 18 |
| Nebraska | May 12 | May 11 | 347 |
| Nevada | April 7 | April 7 | 247 |
| New Hampshire | April 9 | April 15 | 70 |
| New Jersey | April 16 | April 14 | 7058 |
| New Mexico | April 18 | April 13 | 109 |
| New York | April 9 | April 8 | 23232 |
| North Carolina | April 21 | April 16 | 356 |
| North Dakota | May 15 | May 14 | 356 |
| Ohio | April 14 | April 19 | 808 |
| Oklahoma | April 21 | April 21 | 335 |
| Oregon | April 9 | April 12 | 122 |
| Pennsylvania | April 21 | April 19 | 2770 |
| Rhode Island | April 27 | April 26 | 611 |
| South Carolina | April 9 | April 23 | 283 |
| South Dakota | May 16 | May 14 | 93 |
| Tennessee | April 14 | April 4 | 233 |
| Texas | April 24 | April 23 | 1241 |
| Utah | May 1 | May 1 | 241 |
| Vermont | April 16 | April 13 | 46 |
| Virginia | April 24 | April 23 | 762 |
| Washington | April 6 | April 5 | 813 |
| West Virginia | April 20 | April 17 | 38 |
| Wisconsin | April 5 | April 11 | 356 |
| Wyoming | May 5 | May 3 | 161 |
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