A new poll shows 1 in 5 registered voters are open to supporting third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in his White House bid in 2024.
The Monmouth University poll released Monday does not make clear the impact that his third-party candidacy would have on the race, with results indicating Kennedy pulls support equally from the presumed respective nominees of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, President Biden and former President Trump.
In a general election race between Biden and Trump, the poll shows 21 percent of registered voters surveyed will either definitely (6 percent) or probably (15 percent) vote for Kennedy as an independent.
Kennedy, who was formerly a candidate for the Democratic nomination, supports many populist positions that overlap between Trump’s base and some progressive corners of the Democratic party. While he strongly supports a more robust middle class and frequently blasts the wealthy and elite, he has also promoted conspiracy theories about vaccines and skepticism in government.
Conservative media outlets at first embraced Kennedy, when he was running again Biden, but some have soured on him since it seems his candidacy poses a threat to Trump — or whoever the eventual GOP nominee will be — as well.
In the new poll, Kennedy pulls 14 percent of support from both candidates, in a hypothetical Trump-Biden rematch, with 3 percent of 2020 Trump voters “definitely” voting for Kennedy and 11 percent “probably” voting for Kennedy. Among 2020 Biden voters, 4 percent say they are “definitely” voting for Kennedy, and 10 percent say they “probably will vote for Kennedy.”
The number of Biden voters who say they are “definitely not” voting for Kennedy — 61 percent — is greater than the 46-percent share of Trump voters who say the same. Another 22 percent of Biden voters say they are “probably not” voting for Kennedy, and 33 percent of Trump voters say they are “probably not” voting for him.
Despite Kennedy’s independent bid pulling equally from both parties, his unfavorable rating among Democrats — 55 percent — is significantly greater than his unfavorable rating among Republicans, which sits at 17 percent.
Some Democratic pundits have suggested that Kennedy’s name gives him a boost in some of these early surveys, but they also suggest the more people learn of Kennedy’s more controversial positions, they might be less inclined to vote for him.
The survey shows it’s true that around 50 percent of the public is unaware of Kennedy’s support for conspiracy theories, specifically that autism is linked to vaccines and that COVID is “targeted to attack” people of certain races. But the survey also shows that his controversial beliefs don’t have much of an impact on voters. After respondents were made aware of these views, the changes were statistically insignificant, with a 1 point increase to 22 percent in the number of voters who say they definitely or probably will support Kennedy, and a 2 point increase to 76 percent in the number of voters who say they will probably or definitely not vote for him.
The poll was conducted by telephone from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4 with 743 registered voters in the United States. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.