Morning Consult executive editor Anna Yukhananov says the fight between Republicans and Democrats to take back the House will be close in this year’s midterm elections.
“I think it’s a strong chance, but I think it’s going to be close,” Yukhananov told Hill.TV’s Joe Concha on “What America’s Thinking,” when asked whether she thought Democrats would regain control of the lower chamber.
“What interesting is even in toss-up districts, there’s a slight lean towards Democrats, but I think it’s less than it is nationally,” she continued.
The new American Barometer survey, conducted by Hill.TV and the HarrisX polling company found that Democrats are leading Republicans by 11 points on the generic ballot.
Other polling has also displayed a solid Democratic lead at the national level.
Despite energy displayed by the Democratic base and candidates going into the midterms, there are still some factors that could play into the GOP’s favor, including the healthy economy.
Republicans have historically come out in higher numbers to vote in midterms, and liberal groups say they hold a gerrymandered advantage in district lines as well.
However, research director at the Public Religion Research Institute Dan Cox says each race will ultimately come down to local conditions.
“The action is occurring district by district, and it really varies, depending on candidate quality, resources, the demographics of the particular district,” Cox told Concha.
“So we’re not looking at a national election, we’re looking at a whole bunch of local elections that determine sort of the national outcome,” he continued.
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