The Hill’s 12:30 Report — DeSantis’s risky gamble with Latino voters

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–> A midday take on what’s happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.* 

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha–breaks down crying hysterically. 

TALK OF THE MORNING 

Well, that may have backfired:  

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is facing mounting scrutiny in his home state over his controversial decision last week to fly dozens of mostly Venezuelan migrants to the elite resort island of Martha’s Vineyard, Mass.  

Besides Democratic opposition: “[It] has sparked a wave of criticism … members of Florida’s vast Hispanic community, a politically influential force in the Sunshine State.” 

What’s unclear: Will this move help or hurt DeSantis if he runs for president in 2024? It did receive praise from the conservative base. 

How it could play out, via The Hill’s Max Greenwood and Amie Parnes 

TIDBIT — TRUMP’S SON-IN-LAW CRITICIZED THE MOVE: 
Former White House adviser Jared Kushner told Fox News’s “Outnumbered”: “I personally watch what’s happening, and it’s very hard to see at the southern border … We have to remember that these are human beings, they’re people, so seeing them being used as political pawns one way or the other is very troubling to me.” Watch Kushner on Fox News 

NEW UPDATE — A FLIGHT JUST TO ‘PUNK’ DEMOCRATS: 

MSNBC’s Kyle Griffin tweeted a Miami Herald story: “A source close to Ron DeSantis told NBC News that a planned charter flight from San Antonio to Delaware was canceled without explanation and then used to ‘punk’ journalists and Democrats. As a result, around 20 migrants were stranded — with nothing.” The full story 

Happy Friday, friends! I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.

In Congress 

Out of the box, out of the box. Out of the box!: 

^ Wow, this show and its intro is a memory I didn’t know I had. Anyone else remember this show?

“Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) is looking for a way to avoid a government shutdown next week while also keeping his promise to Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to pass permitting reform before October.”  

The problem: If Manchin’s promised legislation is included in the government funding bill, most Senate Republicans will vote “no.” That means Schumer likely wouldn’t have enough votes to pass the government funding bill. 

^ OK, so then why doesn’t Schumer exclude the Manchin provision?: Schumer promised Manchin it would be included. That was part of the deal he made with Manchin in exchange for his “yes” vote on last month’s Inflation Reduction Act. 

A loophole some Dems are making: That Schumer technically promised a vote on his bill, not that it would pass. So Schumer could put that bill on the floor for a vote and if it fails, it fails. 

How many votes do Democrats need?: At least 60 votes. But if it includes Manchin’s legislation, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) will vote “no,” so Democrats would need at least 12 Republicans to pass it. 

How this could play out, via The Hill’s Alexander Bolton 

REPUBLICANS ARE LINING UP TO OPPOSE MANCHIN’S BILL:
Keep in mind: This bill would reform the permitting process for energy projects. Republicans oppose this bill because they don’t think it goes far enough. Where Republicans stand on the bill 

Controversial? Mainstream? Keep ‘em all happy!:

“House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is giving the confrontational right flank of the GOP conference a seat at the table as he aims to shore up their support for Speaker if Republicans take the chamber next year.”  

How McCarthy is doing this: “[H]e’s starting now by including controversial figures and members of the House Freedom Caucus in high-profile events in an effort to seemingly win them over — unlike some of his GOP predecessors.” 

For example: “Firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) will be at a rollout event outside Pittsburgh on Friday for McCarthy’s Commitment to America policy platform, a list of policy priorities inspired by the 1994 Contract with America.”  

What this could mean for the GOP, via The Hill’s Emily Brooks

⚠️ The latest with Russia 

I would take this warning seriously, Vlad: 

AP/Russian Presidential Service

The Washington Post’s Paul Sonne andJohn Hudson report that “[t]he United States for several months has been sending private communications to Moscow warning Russia’s leadership of the grave consequences that would follow the use of a nuclear weapon, according to U.S. officials, who said the messages underscore what President Biden and his aides have articulated publicly.”  

Specifically, what is the U.S. warning?: The U.S. has kept its warnings purposely vague. 

The strategy: “The attempt by the White House to cultivate what’s known in the nuclear deterrence world as “strategic ambiguity” comes as Russia continues to escalate its rhetoric about possible nuclear weapons use amid a domestic mobilization aimed at stanching Russian military losses in eastern Ukraine.”  

The full Washington Post story 

‘IN A NEW PHASE OF THE WAR, RUSSIANS ARE BEING PLUCKED FROM VILLAGES AND DRAFTED INTO MILITARY SERVICE.’: 
From The New York Times’s Anton Troianovski, Valerie Hopkins, Ivan Nechepurenko and Alina Lobzina 

THE U.N. HAS DETERMINED THAT RUSSIA HAS COMMITTED WAR CRIMES: 
“War crimes including rape, torture and confinement of children have been committed in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, the head of a U.N.-mandated investigation body said on Friday. Ukraine and its Western allies allege a litany of rights abuses by Russian soldiers since the Feb. 24 invasion, but Moscow denies that as a smear campaign.” What this means for the conflict, from Reuters’s Emma Farge

💊 In the White House 

Let’s try some more funding: 

President Biden just announced that he will be giving $1.5 billion to states and territories to fight the opioid crisis.  

Included in that funding: “The grants will include over $104 million allocated to rural areas to expand treatment and prevention, $20.5 million to increase access to recovery supports across the country and $12 million to bolster law enforcement in High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas (HIDTA).”  

Plus: “Along with the new funding, the Biden administration published new guidance to facilitate greater access to FDA-approved naloxone products, which treat opioid overdoses in emergency situations, and guidance for employers to create ‘Recovery-Ready Workplaces.’” More from the announcement

💰 On the campaign trail 

Flood the zone! I repeat: flood the zone!: 

Politico’s Alex Isenstadt reports that “Donald Trump’s top lieutenants are launching a new super PAC that is expected to spend heavily to bolster his endorsed candidates in the midterm election — and, some people close to the former president say, could become a campaign apparatus if he runs in 2024.”   

The group’s name: MAGA, Inc. 

Why this is noteworthy: “The organization provides the clearest indication yet of how Trump plans to engage during the final stretch of the midterm campaign and, those in the former president’s orbit say, offers a preview into what the structure of a 2024 campaign could look like. Republicans have been heavily outspent in races across the map, and party strategists have been anxious for Trump — by far the party’s biggest money magnet — to help financially.” What we know

🦠 Latest with COVID 

➤ THE COVID-19 NUMBERS 

Cases to date: 95.7 million 

Death toll: 1,049,864 

Current hospitalizations: 24,313 

Shots administered: 616 million 

Fully vaccinated: 67.8 percent of Americans 

CDC data here.

🐥Notable tweets 

Selfies with MTG. Come and get your selfies with MTG!: 

Politico’s Sarah Ferris tweeted a photo of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) posing for selfies at an event with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in Pennsylvania. Photo of the selfie line

Lol, I’m glad someone is finally saying this out loud:

@MilesKlee tweeted, “it’s that wonderful time of year when the drug store pretends that people send Halloween greeting cards.” Photo of the Halloween greeting cards 

⏱On tap 

The House and Senate are out. President Biden and Vice President Harris are in Washington, D.C. 

• 8 a.m.: Biden received his daily briefing. 
• 11 a.m.: The Senate held a pro forma session. Tuesday’s Senate agenda 
• 12:30 p.m.: Biden attends a Democratic National Committee (DNC) event in Washington, D.C. 
• 12:50 p.m.: Harris holds a meeting with NAACP young leaders. 
• 1 p.m.: Biden delivers remarks at DNC event. 

 All times Eastern. 

📺What to watch 

• 2:30 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre holds a press briefing. Livestream 
• 8 p.m.: Biden and first lady Jill Biden host Sir Elton John at the White House. Livestream 
• Sunday: CNN’s Jake Tapper interviews U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss on “State of the Union.” Photo of Tapper posing outside of 10 Downing Street

🍫 In lighter news 

Today is National White Chocolate Day. 

And to leave you on an adorable note, here’s a sleepy duck.