The Trail 2016: When a pivot isn’t always a pivot

by TheHill.com - 06/29/16 6:23 PM ET

Welcome to THE TRAIL 2016, your daily rundown from The Hill on all the latest news in the White House, Senate and House races.

Donald Trump has pivoted toward a more professional campaign but he hasn’t entirely dumped his primary playbook.

During his policy speeches, it’s the buttoned-up, scripted Trump that placates the GOP elites. But during his campaign rallies, it’s the same Trump that energized GOP voters and frightened the establishment.

Trump put those dueling tones display Tuesday–first offering a scripted speech on his central trade priorities during a policy speech during the day, and then bashing the Trans-Pacific Partnership as “a continuing rape of our country” during his night campaign rally. That tone creeped out again Wednesday when he said his former presidential primary rivals should be barred from running for public office.

The strategy allows Trump to speak to both his constituencies, leaving both satisfied but none fully satiated. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell addressed Trump’s recent shift by hoping he would become a “more serious and credible candidate,” an implicit assertion that Trump isn’t there yet.

We’ll have more coverage on Trump tomorrow, as well as Scott Wong’s report on how the Bush world is dealing with a Trump nomination, Julian Hattem on what’s next for Hillary Clinton’s email scandal now that the Benghazi report is behind her, Megan Wilson’s coverage of some questionable PAC spending, and Jonathan Easley’s check-in with the “Never Trump” delegate contingent.

RACE TO 1600 PENN

CAMPAIGNER-IN-CHIEF: The Hill’s Jordan Fabian reports: President Obama hits the trail with Hillary Clinton in North Carolina next week in an event rescheduled in the wake of the Orlando shooting earlier this month.

YOU CAN’T DO THAT: The Hill’s Jonathan Swan and Harper Neidig report: A super-PAC backing Hillary Clinton has accepted $200,000 in donations from a company holding multiple contracts with the federal government — despite a ban on such contributions.

VEEPSTAKES: The Hill’s Niall Stanage reports: We’re just one month from the convention and speculation about Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential pick is heating up. Take a look at where The Hill’s power rankings stand.

FIGHTING WORDS: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: Hillary Clinton’s campaign panned Donald Trump’s fundraising boasting as “bunk” in a new email pitch to supporters.

TOO LATE: The Hill’s Lisa Hagen reports: John Kasich’s campaign sent supporters a new email touting Kasich’s supremacy in swing state polling over both Donald Trump and Paul Ryan. There’s only one thing stopping Kasich from turning those polls into a reality–he lost the presidential primary.

JUST KIDDING: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: Ben Carson joked Wednesday that his mother would have shot certain members of the media for their coverage of the 2016 presidential race.

ODDS AND ENDS:

GUESS WHO’S COMING?: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: A group of white nationalists plan to head to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland next month to defend Donald Trump.

GOP CONVENTION SHUFFLE: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: Storied former Chicago Bears football coach Mike Ditka said he was willing to speak at the GOP convention, but the Chicago Sun-Times reported that he ultimately told Trump Wednesday he wouldn’t.

INSTITUTIONAL FAILURE: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: At least 20 pages of Donald Trump’s textbooks for real estate and wealth seminars were plagiarized from another book written 10 years earlier, according to The New York Times.

ACROSS THE POND: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: Politicians from foreign countries are receiving fundraising emails from Donald Trump’s campaign even though such contributions would be a violation of federal law.

DEMS CONFIDENT: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: Former Obama campaign aide David Plouffe is bullish on Hillary Clinton’s chances in the fall, tweeting a prediction of 350 or more electoral votes for the Democratic presidential hopeful.

POLL POSITION

CLINTON TRUMPS ON CAMPAIGN FINANCE: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Voters trust Hillary Clinton more than Donald Trump when it comes to campaign finance reform, according to a new poll.

EURO-NO: The Hill’s Jesse Byrnes reports: The majority of Europeans have little confidence in Donald Trump to “do the right thing” on global affairs, a new poll shows.

GARDEN STATE LEAD: The Hill’s Jesse Byrnes reports: Hillary Clinton holds a 21-point lead over Donald Trump in a head-to-head poll of New Jersey voters, but that margin is cut to 12 percent when Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson is included.

THE DAILY TRUMP

NOT SO FAST: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: Donald Trump tweeted a poll showing him down 2 percentage points to Hillary Clinton, yet within the margin of error. The Quinnipiac poll also found that the majority of Americans believe the 2016 election increased hatred and prejudice, with the majority of those who felt that way blaming Trump’s campaign.

FEUD IN THE CHAMBER: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: Donald Trump slammed the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Twitter one day after the group bashed his trade policies.

WATERBOARDING: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Donald Trump is upping his push for waterboarding terror suspects after an apparent attack in Istanbul.

BENGHAZI BUMP: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: An ad backed by the National Rifle Association’s (NRA) political arm features a survivor of the Benghazi terror attack telling voters to pick Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. The ad buy costs $2 million and is the NRA campaign arm’s first entry into the general since it endorsed Trump.

MOCKING: The Hill’s Harper Neidig reports: Howie Carr, a conservative talk radio host, mocked Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren with what was supposed resemble a Native American war cry ahead of Trump’s Wednesday speech.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“I know what he thinks inside. He hates her. Bernie Sanders cannot stand Hillary Clinton.”

–Donald Trump,during his Wednesday rally in Maine.

CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGNS

HISTORIC WINS: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Two transgender candidates, both Democrats, won primaries Tuesday night, with Misty K. Snow becoming the first transgender Senate candidate in U.S. history.

MONEY WATCH

GOING AT IT ALONE: The Hill’s Jesse Byrnes reports: Three super-PACs supporting Donald Trump have spent less than $4 million, compared to the $50 million that Mitt Romney’s main super-PAC spent in 2012.

MAKE AMERICA’S ECONOMY DEPRESSED?: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Paul Singer, a GOP megadonor who isn’t supporting Donald Trump, warned that Trump’s policies could lead to a global depression.

CLINTON’S SOLID JUNE HAUL: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: CNN estimates that Hillary Clinton has raised more than $34 million just from fundraisers alone this month.

WHAT WE ARE WATCHING FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW:

(All times Eastern)

Donald Trump has added a speech on trade in Manchester, N.H. Wednesday afternoon, according to The New Hampshire Union-Leader, but it may not be open to the public.

TWEET OF THE DAY

Trump has a 19% chance of becoming president, according to our polls-only model, and 26% according to polls-plus. https://t.co/zo8rbYw56E

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 29, 2016