Three Democrats wander through the desert in desperate search of water when they come upon a small well. One Democrat offers a 10-point plan on water infrastructure, the second argues that the water is unsafe to drink, and the third berates the other two for forgetting to fill up their canteens when they first left on the trip. While they argue, a Republican, similarly thirsty, walks past them and simply starts drinking from the well. Then the Republican attacks the Democrats for overspending on water and leaves, wiping his frothing lips.
Welcome to the challenge of Democratic messaging on the eve of the 2024 presidential election.
I witnessed the challenge firsthand at a recent Democratic fundraiser in New York City, where the affluent and the activists assembled for wine, cheese and handwringing. They fretted over individual polls and agonized over recent punditry and counter-punditry. They complained that Democrats lack punch in our message, then self-flagellated on Joe Biden’s age.
I admit it’s been a few years since I dealt with messaging in elections, but it seems that regurgitating your opponent’s talking points and swallowing your own accomplishments isn’t exactly motivational.
The truth of the matter, as Walter Shapiro notes in The New Republic, is that President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party are in a strong position heading into 2024. Let’s review, shall we?
The unemployment rate stands at 3.4 percent — the lowest it’s been in 54 years. Inflation is moderating. For all the doomsday predictions of a hard landing after the pandemic, our economy is resilient and vigorous as a result of the aggressive investments made by the Biden Administration’s American Rescue Plan.
Lost in the gloom is that Biden has assembled the most impressive legislative record of any president since Lyndon Johnson. Drawing on his decades of experience, Biden deftly navigated a 50-50 Senate to pass a historic bipartisan infrastructure bill, generational investments in clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing, the first gun safety law in almost 30 years, a bill codifying same-sex marriage, a bill aiding veterans who suffered health effects from burn pits and an electoral reform to prevent a repeat of Trump’s attempt to use Congress to undermine the election. And that’s all without mentioning the nomination and confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman to ever sit on the Supreme Court.
On the international stage, Biden had the courage to end the longest war in U.S. history and to stand up to Vladimir Putin in the face of Russia’s unjust invasion of Ukraine. Biden’s policies, with bipartisan support, have bolstered NATO and rallied allies to our side as we’ve supported the Ukrainian people in their fight to preserve their sovereignty.
Biden has done all this in service of the foundational goal of his presidency — proving that democracy can still deliver as authoritarianism rises abroad and in our own backyard. While many criticized Biden for his closing message on democracy in the 2022 midterms, it led Democrats to one of the strongest midterm showings by a president’s party in history.
And now, Democrats are worried because Biden happens to have an eight as the first digit of his age? It’s not how Biden walks, folks, it’s where he stands. His administration has amassed a historically great record in his first term as president and is poised to build on it in his second.
As Biden often says, elections are choices, not referenda. The choice will likely be between him and either former President Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — an authoritarian blowhard or a guy who goes to DEFCON 1 when Minnie Mouse offends him. Like all elections in our current political era, negative partisanship will be baked in before the first general election ads ever air. Forty-five percent of the electorate will vote for Biden no matter what; the other 45 percent for Trump or his cosplayer. The election rests in the hands of the undecided 10 percent scattered across eight battleground states.
These voters are, by their nature, moderate. They decide based on kitchen-table interests: paychecks and potholes. But they also grow uncomfortable when either party goes too far — such as by banning books, outlawing abortion or Florida’s new law allowing open-carry without even a permit.
But Democrats should certainly be concerned about how those swing voters respond to immigration and crime. They need to address a recent poll by Hart Research that asked, “Do Democrats give the right amount of attention to strengthening the economy, or do Democrats focus too much on cultural and social issues?”Fifty-five percent agreed with the latter. (More on this in a future column.)
Democrats have to stop wrapping an impressive record of accomplishments in funeral crepe. If they do their job, the 2024 election will turn out well. If they don’t, it’s back to wandering in the desert, where the political winds will be hot and strong.
Steve Israel represented New York in the U.S. House of Representatives over eight terms and was chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015. He is now director of the Cornell Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy Institute of Politics and Global Affairs. Follow him on Twitter @RepSteveIsrael.