Indictment does nothing to dampen GOP support for Trump

The indictment of former President Trump has done nothing to dampen his support among GOP voters, with a vast swath in a recent poll concluding that he should still be able to serve in the White House even if he is convicted.

More than 60 percent of likely Republican primary voters in a CBS News poll said their view of Trump had not changed despite another set of criminal charges against him. And a staggering 80 percent of those voters said he should still be able to be president if he’s convicted over the mishandling of classified documents, some of which contained sensitive nuclear and military information.

When it comes to whether Trump keeping such documents posed a national security risk, 38 percent of likely GOP primary voters said yes, compared to the rest of the country, which amounted to 80 percent saying yes.

The poll gives an early glimpse into how the Trump indictment is being viewed by Americans, especially for likely GOP primary voters who might hand him the presidential nomination for a third time in 2024.

“There’s no doubt that Trump’s got a hardcore group of supporters in the Republican Party primary who are immovable … because he speaks to them, he speaks their language, to their fears, he addresses the issues that they’re concerned about — real or imagined,” said one former Trump donor. “And he rallies their anger and gives them an outlet, which is often times ignored by other politicians and, as we’ve seen in recent years, mocked by Democrats.” 

Trump, who other national polls show is the front-runner for the 2024 nomination, is facing 37 criminal charges by the Justice Department. He is set to appear at an arraignment — his second one this year — Tuesday in Miami.

Following the indictment unveiled late last week, Trump touted in campaign appearances that his poll numbers shot up after the news dominated headlines.

But when it comes to what they want to hear on the campaign trail, likely GOP voters in the CBS poll said they’d rather Trump not dwell on his litany of legal problems. The survey found 61 percent of likely Republican voters don’t want Trump to talk about the investigations, and the vast majority would rather he focus on his plans for the country. 

Trump stunned political watchers in 2016 when he bounced back after multiple scandals win the GOP nomination and general election.  When the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape was released, which involved Trump boasting graphically about his treatment of women as a celebrity,  pundits thought his political future was dead — until it wasn’t.

One Republican strategist raising money for another candidate pointed to Trump’s prediction from 2016.

“I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK? It’s, like, incredible,” Trump said in January 2016, months after he launched his campaign in Manhattan, N.Y.

When Trump became the first former president to be indicted earlier this year in a case brought by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office — in which he faces 34 felony counts — polling by NBC News suggested two-thirds of Republican primary voters said they were not concerned with the charges and believed it wouldn’t impact his electability.

The country’s highly politicized environment makes some Republican voters skeptical of any case against Trump, though this indictment could prove to be the exception, argued Josh Holmes, a GOP strategist and longtime political adviser to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).  

“The vast majority of Republican voters have been conditioned by overtly political and often baseless claims about Donald Trump to immediately dismiss allegations when they arise,” Holmes said. “That is certainly what is happening initially with this indictment, although this one may have more teeth over time.

“The main political concern Trump camp should have here is the stacking effect of multiple indictments and the clear preference by Republican voters to talk about something other than investigations.”

Other Republicans say it would take Trump’s 2024 GOP opponents calling him out on the Department of Justice charges for voters to change their minds and back away from the former president.

“It depends on what the other Republicans who are running for president do. If they’re campaigning to go around Donald Trump, then nothing changes. So they’re either going to confront Donald Trump directly on this and on other things, and they can talk about the chaos and that he’s distracted, that he can’t focus against Biden. Or nothing changes,” said GOP strategist Doug Heye. 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis joined a chorus of other GOP presidential hopefuls in recent days in condemning the indictment, calling it the “weaponization of federal law enforcement” and a “moral threat.” Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence called for Attorney General Merrick Garland to publicly justify the indictment. 

Vivek Ramaswamy, another GOP hopeful, suggested Sunday that he would support pardoning Trump if he is convicted.

“When Donald Trump declares himself a victim and everybody running to defeat him puts out statements saying Donald Trump is a victim, that only cements things,” Heye said. 

But with his legal perils and the indictment surely to drag into the election year, some wonder whether the general election is where Trump will run into trouble.

The former Trump donor noted that in situations like this latest indictment, Trump loyalists harden their support for him, but that’s not necessarily the support needed to win a November election.

“The problem with that is it’s great for a Republican primary, but these charges and the accusations create a circuslike atmosphere around Trump and his candidacy, which makes it far less likely that the swing voters, the moderate voters, the unaffiliated voters would be interested in electing him president,” the source said. “Winning the presidency has always been about building a coalition of voters, of people. It’s your base, plus.” 

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) told CBS on Monday that Trump’s mishandling of documents could be used against him by opponents when asked whether the indictment should disqualify him from being president again. 

“Well, I think those are arguments that President Trump’s opponents will use in the election. Which is the guy doesn’t know how to handle classified documents. That’s different from let’s now have an indictment where we’re going to try to put this guy in jail for the rest of his life,” Rubio said. 

Two other Republican senators took a tougher stance against Trump when the indictment came out: Mitt Romney (Utah) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), who are both longtime Trump foes. 

Romney said Trump “brought these charges upon himself,” noting Trump had numerous opportunities to return the classified documents, and Murkowski said the allegations cannot be “casually dismissed” and are very serious.  

Meanwhile, Heye argued 2024 GOP opponents supporting Trump is “another example of how Donald Trump plays by different rules.” He said these opponents must speak out, or else Trump will be the nominee again. 

“Ultimately, Luke Skywalker has got to confront Darth Vader and can’t hope that just the Force takes care of everything,” he said.