Jordan will likely be Iran’s next domino

Iran and its self-proclaimed “Axis of Resistance” have been on a roll since 2011. Unfortunately, Jordan may well be their next target.

The wave of “Arab Spring” revolts that shook the Middle East and swept away five of its staunchest autocracies was supposed to clear the way for new democracies. Unfortunately, it proved a great disappointment to millions of hopeful Arabs and to the West. A dozen years later, there is not even a murmur of pluralism left in these states.

Likewise, the Obama administration’s precipitous withdrawal from Iraq, also in 2011, only benefitted Iran, which skillfully exploited all of these events.

Under the brilliant leadership of the late Qassim Soleimani, head of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Tehran successfully defended its own positions across the region from attacks — virtual and physical — by a host of galvanized Sunni Arab groups.

Soleimani began creating (mostly Shi’a) militias across the region, which he shifted to bolster threatened Iranian allies. He then counterattacked to take new ground for what rapidly became an ever more cohesive alliance set in opposition to a shrinking American-backed coalition as Washington increasingly disengaged from the region.

Beirut fell to Hezbollah, Baghdad to the Hashd ash-Shaabi, and Sanaa to the Houthis. Damascus remained in the hands of the Assad clan and its Alawi brethren, despite furious assaults by the Sunni Muslims who constitute more than 80 percent of Syria’s population.

In some cases, it was an outright military victory. In others, it was a more gradual takeover, engineered by patient bribery, blackmail, assassination, political corruption, and street violence. Either way, Tehran and its allies are consolidating their control over Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, and their grip tightens with each passing year.

Jordan is the next obvious victim in Iran’s regional subversion spree. It borders Syria, where Iran already has large numbers of military personnel and a metastasizing network of bases, despite valiant Israeli efforts to stop it from spreading.

Jordan also borders Iraq, where the government is ever more compromised and ever less able to prevent Iran from doing as it wishes — and where several thousand American troops are ever less relevant to the country’s political and military course. It also borders the West Bank, where violent Palestinian rejectionist groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad continue to operate with Iranian funding, weaponry, training, and advice.

So Iranian agents and proxies can now infiltrate Jordan from all three directions.

Jordan also has the natural fissures that Iran loves to exploit. Jordan groans under roughly 3 million refugees living on the backs of about 8 million citizens. They come overwhelmingly from Iraq, Syria, and the West Bank, and like all refugees, their demeanor mostly runs from dejected to furious. This is perfect for recruitment by Iran and its allies.

Nearly 60 percent of Jordan’s population is Palestinian, and many of their most prominent “civil society” groups are linked to Iranian-sponsored groups in the West Bank and Gaza. Meanwhile, King Abdullah and his family have alienated many Jordanian elites, even among the staunch East Bank community that has been the monarchy’s power base since the British installed the Hashemites in power in Amman after World War I.

Economically, Jordan has barely survived as the Blanche Dubois of the Levant, chronically dependent on the kindness of strangers. It has little arable land, few natural resources, and is perpetually on the brink of running out of water. It survives just barely, year after year, thanks only to favorable trade deals with Israel and aid from the West and the Gulf.

Jordan’s loss to Iran would be catastrophic. It would allow Iran and its allies and proxies to use the highly developed Palestinian networks between Jordan and the West Bank — both malign and anodyne — to infiltrate Israel, inflame the West Bank Palestinians, and enable Hamas and other terrorist groups in Gaza.

There is no reason to doubt Iran’s desire to destroy Israel, but that has always been little more than a long-term aspiration. If Iran manages to bring down the Jordanian regime, as it has others, then Israel’s destruction might suddenly become a far more realistic, near term prospect.

And Iran’s victories in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen have whetted its appetite, not sated it.

There is no better next target for Iran than Jordan. The Israeli military and intelligence communities have already reached this conclusion. We would do well to do the same.

Kenneth M. Pollack is a senior fellow of the American Enterprise Institute, a former NSC Director for Persian Gulf Affairs, and a former CIA Persian Gulf analyst.