The Memo: DeSantis shows signs of life in final sprint to Iowa caucuses

AMES, Iowa — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is showing some signs of late momentum with the Iowa caucuses looming Monday.

DeSantis, whose campaign for the GOP presidential nomination has struggled for months, performed better at the past two debates than prior ones — most recently at Wednesday night’s CNN clash in Des Moines, the last televised debate before the caucuses.

Speaking Thursday at a barbecue restaurant here in this city roughly 30 miles north of Des Moines, DeSantis appeared much more at ease than his stiff reputation would suggest — even when interrupted three times by pro-environment hecklers. 

The otherwise supportive crowd that showed up felt more energized than the audience that came to a Haley event in the upscale Des Moines suburb of Ankeny earlier in the day. 

DeSantis, often criticized for being robotic, took questions from audience members and, briefly, from the media. Haley, who has suffered self-inflicted wounds from recent gaffes, did neither.

The Florida governor and the former United Nations ambassador are locked in a tight fight for second place in Iowa, according to polls. 

Former President Trump leads by 37 points in the polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ. Haley and DeSantis are at 17 percent and 16 percent support, respectively. Trump has 54 percent. 

It would be a seismic shock if Trump did not win Monday’s caucuses. But second place matters, as DeSantis and Haley seek to maintain their viability for the states to come. 

Each candidate makes the claim they are the only real alternative to Trump — and both have become more willing to criticize him forcefully.

“Chaos follows him. Y’all know it,” Haley said of the former president, contending that the nation needs a break from “the negativity and baggage of the past.”

DeSantis, in his brief media availability, brought up Trump’s legal troubles. 

The Florida governor predicted Trump will lose in his quest to claim immunity from prosecution, which would mean a Washington, D.C., trial could proceed on charges related to Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

“The question for Republican voters is, one, do you want to put the future of the party in the hands of 12 Democrat jurors in Washington, D.C.? And then, two, do you want the 2024 election to be a referendum on all the legal issues?” DeSantis said. “That plays into the Democrats’ hands.”

The DeSantis and Haley events Thursday offered marked contrasts in styles and rhetoric — and an equally clear difference in how supporters talked about each candidate. 

Those backing Haley often mentioned her positivity and what they saw as her capacity to bring the nation together. 

“She’s the only one that I’ve seen so far that is positive, that has a plan that is not vindictive,” Kevin Kirkman, a retired Marines Corps officer from Des Moines, told The Hill.

Another Haley supporter, Dee McCracken, contended that the former U.N. ambassador “has the ability to pull people along with her, which helps in America, I think. We are all divided in our own little worlds.”

DeSantis backers were more likely to emphasize his values, in terms of the battle against so-called wokeness, and also what they consider his competence as governor of Florida.

Bob Vander Plaats, an influential evangelical leader in Iowa who has endorsed DeSantis, told The Hill at the Ames event that the Florida governor is “a proven leader, and he’s right on the things that are important to us. That’s a big deal.”

Mark Stephenson, a retired construction project manager attending DeSantis’s event, said Trump had “some baggage” — though he also said he would vote for the former president again in a general election if he becomes the GOP nominee.

But Stephenson intends to caucus for DeSantis, citing “the way he has managed his state over the past several years” as one reason. He also expressed admiration for DeSantis’s opposition “to the social engineering and the wokeness” that Stephenson said Democrats pushed.

All the leading candidates are hoping to at least surpass expectations Monday.

But the weather is set to add one more element of unpredictability.

A polar vortex is expected to hit the state and could make for the coldest caucus night on record. Temperatures in Des Moines on Monday are currently forecast to range from a low of minus 16 degrees to a high of minus 3 degrees. 

Such conditions are likely to help candidates who command intense loyalty, which could aid Trump. But they may also reward strong on-the-ground organization, which DeSantis is reputed to have.

“It’s going to be a cold night. This has always been a turnout game, and it always will be,” Vander Plaats said. “So if [DeSantis] brings those people out, he’s got a great shot.”

The forecast for grim conditions has led the candidates to gird their supporters for the task ahead. 

Haley, who previously served as governor of South Carolina, ruefully noted that she doesn’t know what minus-15-degree weather even feels like. 

DeSantis for his part, joked that it is rare for Floridians to migrate north in the winter.

The complaints about the weather offered the only sliver of common ground amid a bitter, high-stakes battle.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.