The Hill’s Campaign Report: More Republican women are running for House seats

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.

We’re Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here’s what we’re watching today on the campaign trail. 

LEADING THE DAY: 

A record number of women are running in House races this campaign cycle, but Republican women are seeing their strongest surge in candidates running since 2010, according to data released by the Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers University this week. 

The data shows a total of 490 women running this cycle so far, with 195 Republican women filing to run. That’s up from a previous record of 133 during the Tea Party wave in 2010.

Additionally, it’s worth noting that the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) says it has a total of 223 GOP women running this cycle. CAWP’s candidate count is from state government candidate listings and is updated after filing deadlines have passed.

“This year, you’re seeing a closing of the gap where the increase in candidates overall, hitting this record, is due in large part to this increase in Republican women, whereas Democratic women are sort of pacing based on 2018,” Kelly Dittmar, a scholar at CAWP, told The Hill. 

Experts point to a number of reasons behind the uptick, including a change in party culture, as well as early and expanded recruiting efforts from GOP groups including Maggie’s List, Winning for Women and GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (N.Y.) own Elevate PAC. 

Stefanik, herself, is seen as the face of the movement to elect more women in the Republican Party, which has been dominated by men for years. 

The New York congresswoman told us that her PAC also works to help women understand the metrics by which strong campaigns are measured, including data and fundraising.

“We try to put the candidates through their paces to develop into top-tier recruits by meeting those certain metrics,” Stefanik said.

Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Ind.), who has also played a major role in the push to elect more Republican woman, also noted the party’s geographical diversity in efforts to elect more women. 

“It’s not even pockets, it’s all across the country, and that’s what’s so exciting,” said Brooks, the NRCC’s 2020 recruitment chair. “I wouldn’t say there’s been a certain focus in a certain part of the country. It’s from the South to the Midwest to the East Coast.”

However, Democrats do tend to have an advantage with female voters in general. Fifty-nine percent of women said they supported a Democratic House candidate in 2018, according to CNN exit polling.

Plus, it’s not yet known how President Trump, who already has low polling numbers with women, will play in these districts women are running in. 

“It’s a case-by-case situation,” a spokeswoman for Winning for Women said. “There are districts where Trump is going to be a huge value add, and there are districts where he might not be as much.”

–Julia Manchester 

READ MORE:

GOP sees groundswell of women running in House races, by Julia.

 

PERSPECTIVES:

Howard Gutman: Here’s how Biden can win over the minority vote and the Rust Belt

Terrance Woodbury and Roshni Nedungadi: Biden’s problem with young voters

 

FROM THE TRAIL:

One of Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) top advisers said in a memo released on Friday that Biden could lose to President Trump in November because “a significant portion” of the progressive senator’s supporters are “currently unsupportive and unenthusiastic” about his candidacy. “If all of Sanders’ base turned out for Joe Biden in November, he could defeat Trump and take back the White House for Democrats. Here’s the problem: significant portions don’t currently plan to,” Weaver wrote. Jonathan Easley reports.

Biden’s senior advisers said on Friday that they believe he can be competitive or even win in the historical red states of Texas, Arizona and Georgia. “This is something we are very, very focused on,” O’Malley Dillon told reporters at a digital briefing. “We believe there will be an expanded map in 2020. We believe there will be battleground states that have never been battleground states before.” Jonathan has more.

FROM CONGRESS & THE STATES:

A potentially lengthy delay in the 2020 census due to the coronavirus pandemic has thrown the decennial redistricting process into uncertainty, The Hill’s Max Greenwood reports. The Census Bureau asked Congress last month for a four-month extension in delivering the population data used by states to draw political lines every 10 years. But in states with hard statutory or constitutional deadlines for completing redistricting, that delay could throw a wrench into the process and potentially disrupt voting in New Jersey and Virginia, which hold regularly scheduled legislative elections in 2021. 

Bold PAC, the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, $425,000 in an ad campaign for Teresa Leger Fernández, who on June 2 will face off in a primary against six other Democrats in the race for New Mexico’s 3rd District. The ad campaign is a large portion of the $2.5 million the committee has set aside for such expenditures in the 2020 cycle. The Hill’s Rafael Bernal reports.

MONEY WATCH:

A report released by Advertising Analytics and obtained via email by The Hill, found that roughly $6.7 billion is expected to be spent in the 2019-2020 campaign cycle, despite financial fallout over the coronavirus pandemic: $2.2 billion is expected to be spent overall at the presidential level, while $1 billion is expected to be spent in Senate races. Projections for House and gubernatorial races remained unchanged respectively at $1 billion and $200 million. Julia reports.

POLL WATCH:

FLORIDA ATLANTIC UNIVERSITY – FLORIDA PRESIDENTIAL 

Biden: 53 percent

Trump: 47 percent

 

EAST CAROLINA UNIVERSITY – NORTH CAROLINA PRESIDENTIAL

Trump: 46 percent (+/-0)

Biden: 43 percent (-5)

 

MARK YOUR CALENDARS:

(Keep in mind these dates could change because of the outbreak.)

May 19:

Oregon primaries

 

May 22:

Hawaii Democratic primary

 

June 2:

Delaware primaries

District of Columbia primaries

Indiana primaries

Maryland primaries

Montana primaries

New Mexico primaries

Pennsylvania primaries

Rhode Island primaries

South Dakota primaries

 

June 9:

Georgia primaries

West Virginia primaries

 

June 23:

Kentucky primaries

 

July 7:

New Jersey primaries

 

July 11:

Louisiana

 

July 14:

Alabama Republican Senate primary runoff

 

August 11:

Connecticut primary

 

August 17-20:

Democratic National Convention

 

August 24-27:

Republican National Convention

 

One fun thing 

There are some new art critics in Kansas City. 

Human caretakers took penguins from the city’s zoo out on a field trip to the Nelson-Atkins Museum of Art this week, allowing the little guys to waddle through the museum’s art-filled halls. 

In fact, the executive director of the museum and CEO of the museum, Julián Zugazagoitia, said the penguins “seemed to react much better to Caravaggio than to Monet.”

Zugazagoitia also said that Peruvian penguins “seemed to appreciate it” when the staff spoke a little Spanish to them! 

You can watch the full video of the penguins’ excursion to the museum here: 

We’ve had some dapper guests visit the museum before but these little tuxedoed visitors are our favorites. The @KansasCityZoo treated the penguins to a little culture before the Zoo re-opens. Watch an extended video on our website https://t.co/WUpsHRDNEg. pic.twitter.com/Bdo9tUTVWT

— Nelson-Atkins Museum of Art (@nelson_atkins) May 14, 2020

We’ll see you next week for more campaign news of the day. Have a great weekend!