The White House believes Russia is repositioning its troops in Ukraine with the intent of focusing its attacks on the eastern parts of the country after its full-scale invasion has stalled after more than one month.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan laid out the Biden administration’s expectations for how Russia will proceed in the coming days and weeks, outlining a scenario where Russia focuses its attacks on the Donbas region in order to win military victories the Kremlin can use to create a narrative of success.
“At this juncture we believe that Russia is revising its war aims,” Sullivan said at a press briefing. “Russia is repositioning its forces to concentrate its offensive operations in eastern and parts of southern Ukraine rather than target most of the territory.”
Biden administration officials believe Russia will focus on defeating Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, two areas of the Donbas region where pro-Russian separatists have operated for years.
“Russia could then use any tactical successes it achieves to propagate a narrative of progress and mask or discount or downplay prior military failures,” Sullivan said.
At the same time, Sullivan said Moscow will likely continue to launch air and missile strikes across the rest of Ukraine, including in the capital city of Kyiv and other populous areas like Odesa, Kharkiv and Lviv.
“Russia’s goal in the end is to weaken Ukraine as much as possible,” Sullivan said, adding the next phase of the conflict could drag on for weeks or months.
Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine nearly five weeks ago, but its military has run into fierce Ukrainian resistance and struggled to take control of major cities or replace government leaders as many experts predicted they would.
Russia last week started to move its troops away from the areas around Kyiv. But President Biden and other White House officials have cautioned against believing Moscow is withdrawing troops or winding down its military operation.
Images emerged over the weekend from the Ukrainian city of Bucha showing people lying dead in the streets and in mass graves, triggering widespread condemnation of Russia’s actions.
“This guy is brutal, and what’s happening in Bucha is outrageous and everyone has seen it,” Biden told reporters upon arriving at Fort McNair in Washington, D.C. “I think it is a war crime.”