Five things to watch during Biden’s trip to Europe

President Biden has embarked on the most consequential trip of his presidency to meet with allies in Brussels and Warsaw four weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in which the U.S. has determined that Russian troops have committed war crimes. 

More than 10 million Ukrainians have fled their country as top U.S. officials continue to warn that Russia could launch chemical and cyber attacks. 

Over the next three days, Biden will participate in a NATO summit to discuss the U.S. commitment to the alliance and a Group of Seven meeting, as well as attend a European Council summit to discuss shared concerns about Ukraine. Biden also plans to engage with U.S. troops in Warsaw and meet with Polish President Andrzej Duda.

Here are five things to watch during Biden’s trip to Europe.

How will Biden and allies further punish Russia?

White House officials have promised further sanctions on Russia as well as measures meant to strengthen the impact of existing punishments, which will be announced as part of Thursday’s meetings.

The administration is reportedly considering sanctioning hundreds of Russian lawmakers to extend the pressure on those who might voice dissent about the invasion of Ukraine. 

National security adviser Jake Sullivan said the sanctions will target Russian political figures, oligarchs and potentially businesses.

Sullivan said that the White House “will have more to say” on reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, telling reporters to stay tuned once Biden meets with the European Commission on Friday morning. 

Biden and other leaders have been criticized for not imposing sanctions strong enough to cause Russian President Vladimir Putin to slow his invasion. 

Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called on Biden and NATO allies to “announce further steps to help Ukraine defend itself and provide credible deterrence aimed at Putin to keep him from escalating this conflict either with nuclear and chemical weapons or attacking NATO itself.” 

Aside from sanctions, Biden and NATO allies are expected to announce adjustments to forces on the alliance’s eastern flank to bolster defenses and further discourage Russia from eyeing attacks beyond Ukraine.

“They’ll also task the military and political instruments of NATO to set out a longer term game plan for what forces and capabilities are going to be required in those eastern flank countries … so that we’ve got a long-term footprint that is matched to the new security reality that’s been created,” Sullivan said Wednesday.

Does the Western alliance remain united?

Biden and his team have for weeks touted that the greatest asset in responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been the unity on display among the U.S. and its European allies.

Western nations have rolled out coordinated sanctions and offered military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine to bolster the country’s defenses against Russian attacks. Biden and other leaders have been similarly on the same page in wanting to avoid an escalation of the war that would draw in NATO forces.

But there have been a few small disagreements, specifically over whether to send fighter jets to Ukraine and about how to punish Russia’s energy sector without upending energy flow to the rest of Europe.

A major focus of Biden’s trip this week will be about maintaining the united front that has thus far defined the Western response to Russia.

“What we would like to hear is that the resolve and unity that we’ve seen for the past month will endure for as long as it takes, that’s at a top line,” Sullivan said when asked what the White House is looking to hear from European Union and British leaders on this trip.

“And that NATO as an alliance puts its money where its mouth is when it comes to actually defending every inch of NATO territory, and that means following through on the necessary capabilities and contributions to defend the eastern flank and to defend the whole alliance,” Sullivan added. 

Will Biden meet with refugees?

The White House has not confirmed whether Biden in Poland will meet Ukrainian refugees, who have flooded the country since the start of the invasion late last month, but Sullivan said the president would “announce further American contributions to a coordinated humanitarian response to ease the suffering of civilians inside Ukraine and to respond to the growing flow of refugees.”  

Biden’s visit comes as the U.S. is reportedly looking to resettle more Ukrainian refugees, including those with ties to U.S. citizens and permanent residents. Biden last week said the U.S. stands open to helping those who have fled the war.

“We are open, and our hearts are open, and our arms are open to help the more than 3 million Ukrainian refugees who have already fled Putin’s onslaught,” Biden said last week.

White House officials on Wednesday declined to offer any more details of Biden’s stop on his trip, including whether major gaps in his schedule on Friday meant he might visit refugees in Poland.

Biden will meet U.S. troops stationed in Poland and experts involved in the humanitarian response. Earlier this month, Vice President Harris met with seven displaced people from Ukraine in Warsaw.

“We feel that it is the right place for him to go to be able to see troops, to be able to see humanitarian experts and to be able to meet with a front-line and very vulnerable ally,” Sullivan said. 

How does Putin react?

Biden warned earlier this week that Russia appeared to be exploring possible cyberattacks, and the president on Wednesday said the possible use of chemical weapons by Russia was a “real threat.” 

Officials suspect Putin will have a strong response to any new punishments imposed by NATO or the Group of Seven partners. 

Sullivan said Biden will consult with allies on contingencies in the event Russia pursues cyberattacks or chemical weapons attacks and “how to deal with the rhetoric and the commentary coming from Russia on this whole question of the potential use of nuclear weapons.”

“[Putin has] already used chemical weapons in the past, and we should be careful of what’s about to come,” Biden said Monday. “He knows there’ll be severe consequences because of the united NATO front, but the point is: It’s real.”

Biden last week called Putin a “war criminal,” a “murderous dictator” and a “pure thug.” Russian officials hit back by saying Biden’s “irritability, his fatigue and sometimes forgetfulness” leads to “aggressive” statements.

Russia on Monday said it had summoned the U.S. ambassador to Moscow for a meeting to provide him a “note of protest” over Biden’s criticisms, with the country’s foreign ministry warning that relations between Moscow and the U.S. could be completely severed. 

While Biden hasn’t spoken directly to Putin since before the invasion, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz have communicated one-on-one with the Russia president. After Macron spoke to him on March 3, the French president was convinced the worst is yet to come.

Does China loom over the proceedings?

China will not be part of this week’s meetings in Europe, but the nation’s presence is still likely to be a major part of discussions among allies.

U.S. officials have raised concerns in recent weeks about China potentially assisting Russia with military equipment, offering much needed aid to Moscow as its invasion has progressed more slowly than intelligence experts expected. 

Sullivan told reporters on Wednesday that China is likely to be a topic of discussion between Biden and European leaders on Thursday. EU leaders are slated to meet with Chinese officials on April 1.

“We have not actually seen or do not have evidence of the actual provision of military equipment for use in Ukraine from China to Russia,” Sullivan said. “But we are monitoring that closely, and of course our European allies are as well.”

Biden spoke to Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday and warned him that Beijing would face consequences if it provides “material support” to Russia, but the White House has not said what those consequences would be.

The nearly two-hour call between Biden and the Chinese president took place after Secretary of State Antony Blinken outlined concerns that China is considering directly assisting Russia with military equipment to use in Ukraine.