Dems hold edge in Rust Belt Senate races: poll

Five incumbent Democratic senators running in Rust Belt states President Trump won in the 2016 election all hold leads heading into the final month of the midterm campaign, a poll released Wednesday found.

The Reuters poll showed that Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) all have the lead over their Republican challengers.

The most competitive race is in Indiana, where Donnelly is running against businessman Mike Braun (R) in Vice President Pence’s home state. The poll shows 46 percent of respondents backed Donnelly, while 43 percent backed Braun.

{mosads}The results were within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, and 1,181 Indiana voters were surveyed.

The other Rust Belt races show the Democrat with a healthier advantage.

Brown leads Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Ohio) in the Ohio Senate race, with 50 percent of voters surveyed supporting the incumbent, and 39 percent supporting the Republican challenger.

Democrats also lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — three states where Trump narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton on his way to victory in the 2016 presidential campaign.

In Michigan, Stabenow leads businessman and veteran John James (R), who has the support of Trump and Pence, by a margin of 55 percent to 35 percent. The poll surveyed 1,150 voters.

Casey Jr. holds a 16-point edge over Rep. Lou Barletta (R) in the Pennsylvania race. Fifty-three percent of voters polled back Casey Jr., while 37 percent back Barletta, according to the poll.

Baldwin earned the support of 52 percent of voters surveyed in the Wisconsin poll, compared to Republican Leah Vukmir, who received 39 percent. 

The margin of error for each poll was plus or minus 3 percentage points. The polls were all conducted in mid-September.

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, rates the Senate seats in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as “likely” to remain Democratic. The site considers the Ohio seat to “lean” Democratic, and rates the Indiana race as a “toss-up.”