Poll shows statistical tie in Montana Senate race

Montana Sen. Steve Daines (R) and Gov. Steve Bullock (D) are in a dead heat in the state’s Senate race, according to polling released Thursday by NBC Montana and Strategies 360.

The poll found Daines with 48 percent to Bullock’s 47 percent. Five percent were undecided. The survey also found 61 percent of respondents have already voted in the election. Mail-in ballots are an option for 45 of Montana’s 56 counties, and voters have already returned 289,422, or 45 percent, of those sent out.

The poll found an even tighter race for the state’s at-large House seat, with Republican candidate Matt Rosendale and Democratic candidate Kathleen Williams tied at 46 percent with 8 percent undecided.

New Strategies360/NBC Montana poll:

Trump 51
Biden 43

Senate
Daines (R-inc) 48
Bullock (D) 47

House
Rosendale (R) 46
Williams (D) 46

Gov
Gianforte (R) 48
Cooney (D) 41

(500 LVs, Oct 15-20, mixed mode, MoE 4.4%)https://t.co/8i4NR64EnS

— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) October 22, 2020

The presidential race was less close but still within single digits, with President Trump pulling 51 percent to Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s 43 percent. Four percent were undecided, while 3 percent supported Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen.

In the state’s open gubernatorial race, Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) leads Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney (D) 48 percent to 41 percent. Seven percent were undecided, while another 4 percent backed Libertarian candidate Lyman Bishop, according to the survey.

Pollsters surveyed 500 likely voters from Oct. 15-20. The survey has a 4.4-point margin of error.

The RealClear Politics average of Montana’s Senate race gives Daines a 2.8-point lead.