Dems’ challenge in 2010: holding the line

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) is done talking about waves.

After steering House Democrats toward their second consecutive “wave” election last year, Van Hollen is regrouping for the party’s first in-power midterm election since 1994 — a year in which congressional Democrats were brutally swept from power in Newt Gingrich’s “Republican Revolution.”

{mosads}Now, Van Hollen is talking simply about holding the line, as the Democratic majority faces historic challenges in defending or expanding its majority.

“We’re not predicting any more waves,” Van Hollen said at a breakfast for freshman members hosted by The Hill on Wednesday morning. “We’re just trying to — well, never mind,” Van Hollen continued to laughter. “Hold our own. Hold our own would be good enough.”

The historic victories of the last two cycles create a dilemma in 2010 for Democrats. Van Hollen noted that in those two elections, Democrats won 83 districts in which President Bush performed better than Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004. Only six Republicans hold seats carried by Kerry.

The two midterm election cycles that really catch Van Hollen’s eye are the only two midterms since 1862 in which the incumbent president’s party has managed to pick up seats in Congress: 1934 and 2002.

To no one’s surprise, Van Hollen prefers to focus on the 1934 model and not 2002, when House Republicans gained seats.

He sees clear parallels not just in the economic difficulties facing the country and President Obama, but in how favorably the public reacted to the heavy lifting of President Roosevelt’s administration in 1934.

“This is a time more than ever, I believe, where good policy makes good politics,” Van Hollen said. “But even if we make mistakes, I believe the public will be forgiving … I think our constituents are patient and somewhat understanding of what we’re doing.”

The lesson Van Hollen hopes to impart on all Democratic members is that — as he tells them every week — Democrats picked up nine seats in 1934 because the public sensed that Roosevelt was working to move the country forward and Republicans were just standing in the way.

At the same time, “Democrats are aware that things can change rapidly,” Van Hollen said.

The 2010 midterm will in large part be a referendum on Obama’s leadership and how the public perceives the economy compared to its current conditions — both factors outside of congressional Democrats’ control, the campaign chairman said. There’s also the burden of modern history; the average number of seats lost in the first midterm by a congressional majority that also holds the presidency is 30.

Referring numerous times to the tremendous “challenges” facing Democrats, Van Hollen compared the Democrats’ response to the economic crisis to running on a treadmill.

“If you do nothing, you go backwards,” he said. “But you can do everything right and be perceived to be standing in the same place.”