Democrats are having to coax, coddle and cajole top-tier candidates into various races this cycle, after a remarkable run of success in the past two elections.
Republicans have taken heat for failing to field candidates in several states and the rash of retirements in swing states will present the GOP with problems. But Democrats, too, have been slow to attract the best possible candidates.
{mosads}In Florida, the Democratic field is headed by Rep. Kendrick Meek, who has an impressive $1.6 million cash on hand, and state Sen. Dan Gelber, who entered the race after Meek.
But Democrats did not score Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the lone statewide elected Democrat, who is rumored to covet the governor’s office more than the opportunity to pursue a rarely open Senate seat.
Other states feature still-developing fields in which the Democratic dream candidate has yet to take the plunge.
Though polls show he is vulnerable, Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) still has no challenger. Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) is said to be close to jumping into the race, while Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) told a local television station he, too, is considering a bid.
In Louisiana, Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) said no to a race against potentially vulnerable Sen. David Vitter (R), leaving Democrats without a serious candidate.
The Obama administration has done its part to rob Senate Democrats of the best possible recruits as well. Former Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano now serves as the secretary of Homeland Security, though polls show she would have given Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) a race in 2010. Former Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is on track for secretary of Health and Human Services, meaning Democrats will again take a pass on the open Kansas Senate seat.
Although recruiting him would have been a long shot, making ex-Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack the secretary of Agriculture robbed Democrats of their best possible challenger to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa).
Finally, Democrats have yet to clear primary fields in two states the party has a strong chance to win. In Kentucky, Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo (D) and Attorney General Jack Conway (D) have already shown they have few inhibitions about lobbing shots at each other, while Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) could be headed for their own contentious primary.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s (DSCC) two bright spots are in Missouri, where the party wooed Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D), and in New Hampshire, where Rep. Paul Hodes (D) has the field to himself.
“It is early in the process, we have a lot of interest in all of those states, and we will have good candidates in those states,” DSCC Chairman Robert Menendez (N.J.) told The Hill in an interview.
Political observers say both parties can get away with second-tier candidates. Neither Sen. Jeff Merkley (Ore.) nor Sen. Kay Hagan (N.C.) — both Democrats who knocked off Republican incumbents — was the Democratic Party’s top choice in the 2008 election cycle.
Democrats “don’t have lots of stars, but then again, look at the last class,” said Jennifer Duffy, a leading Senate analyst at The Cook Political Report. “These fields may not look like this in nine months.”
Indeed, Hagan didn’t get in the race against ex-Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) until late October 2007, while Merkley waited until August 2007 to make official his bid against ex-Sen. Gordon Smith (R).
House races tend to develop later than Senate races, but Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) told The Hill that recruiting is going well, though he faces different struggles.
“Recognize that, having won 54 seats over a four-year period, our playing field on offense is obviously shrinking,” Van Hollen said. “There are a lot of top-tier, very good candidates who are interested in running, but we’re talking about a smaller group of congressional seats.”
The DCCC is bragging about five recruits so far, having coaxed challengers to Reps. Bill Young (R-Fla.), Mike Castle (R-Del.), Mary Bono Mack (R-Calif.) and Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.), as well as a candidate running for the seat Rep. Adam Putnam (R-Fla.) will vacate next year.