Democrats could lose House seat to Obama selection for Cabinet

Republicans could gain another House seat in the 111th Congress — thanks to the newly elected Democratic president.

Barack Obama’s choice for secretary of Agriculture could take one Democrat from the 20-seat pickup the party gained by way of the recent elections. (Three House races have yet to be called and two seats in Louisiana will be filled on Dec. 6.)

{mosads}According to reports, Obama is considering Reps. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) for the USDA post. His transition team declined to comment on Cabinet speculation.

Both members have agriculture experience, but they also come from GOP-leaning districts.

Peterson’s rural western Minnesota district has trended red in recent years and it went for President Bush in both the 2000 and 2004 elections. It took Peterson four attempts before he was finally elected in 1990. With a large wheat-farming industry in his district, he moved quickly up the ladder of the House Agriculture Committee and became its chairman in the Democratic takeover.

And this isn’t his first mention as a possible Cabinet choice. He was talked about for the same spot under President Bush.

Herseth Sandlin takes care of all of South Dakota as its at-large representative. And she is a spot of blue in this red state. The last time South Dakota voted for a Democratic presidential candidate was in 1964.

Herseth Sandlin came to Congress in a 2004 special election when she was 30, making her one of the youngest members of the House, and she is seen as having strong agriculture credentials. And not only is she from a rural state, she’s a member of the Agriculture Committee and also served as executive director of the South Dakota Farmers Union Foundation in 2003.

Neither Peterson’s nor Herseth Sandlin’s office responded to repeated requests for comment.

Analysts note losing a blue seat in red areas could affect the Democratic Party at the state level regardless of the congressional majority Democrats currently hold. They also point out it is Peterson’s and Herseth Sandlin’s personal appeal that has kept these seats in the Democratic column.

“I think these would be open seats Republicans would salivate over and would look to recruit strong candidates in very quickly,” said David Wasserman, the House race editor at The Cook Political Report.

The 7th district of Minnesota is “only Democratic because of the strength of Collin Peterson,” said David Schultz, a professor at the University of Minnesota. He noted the area is “more likely to be a Republican-leaning district rather than Democratic.”

And Bill Richardson, head of the University of South Dakota’s political science department, notes his state’s “political pressures would be acute” for a GOPer to take the at-large seat.

With the next election cycle two years away, a vacancy would require a special election. Neither South Dakota nor Minnesota allows the governor to make an interim appointment, according to state elections officials.

South Dakota must hold a special election within 90 days of the opening. As for Minnesota, if Congress is in session, the governor must call for a special election within five days of the vacancy, and that election must take place within 35 days. Otherwise the vacancy would be filled at the next state general election.

Since both House members have such a strong hold on their seats, neither party has been focused on grooming anyone to take over the spot. A Cabinet appointment could leave both parties scrambling.

“Both sides have not really thought of it — it could be wide open,” said Dr. Barbara Headrick, a professor at Minnesota State University. She said of Peterson’s seat: “Republicans would try very hard to grab this district.”

One possible GOP candidate is Marty Seifert, the state House minority leader. Seifert was first elected in 1996 and is entering his seventh term in office. Schultz called him a “strong candidate.”

{mospagebreak}Another suggested GOP candidate is Morrie Lanning, a three-term representative in the Minnesota House.

As for the Democrats’ chances of keeping the seat, Headrick notes the district is one “where you need to find a fairly conservative Democrat to run.” Four-term state legislator Paul Marquart is a well-liked Democrat who could fit that bill.

Herseth Sandlin has not held her seat as long as Peterson, but her popularity among voters is equal to his. The 230,000 votes she received in 2006 was the second highest total among House members. And several names are mentioned when it comes to filling her spot.

{mosads}Republican Larry Diedrich tried for the seat twice and failed. But his close races with Herseth Sandlin could make him a contender. In the 2004 special election, Diedrich lost to Herseth Sandlin, 51 percent to 49. He lost again in the 2004 general election, in which Herseth Sandlin took 53 percent to his 46.

The other Republican possibility would be state Rep. Shantel Krebs, the majority whip, who has been in the state House since 2005.

The third front-runner for the Republican Party is recent Senate candidate Joel Dykstra, who lost the 2008 election against Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.). Dykstra gained a great amount of name recognition in the race, but his loss could hurt him if he runs for another statewide office.

Democratic state Senate Majority Leader Scott Heidepriem would be a strong option to keep the seat in the party, having served in the state Senate since 2007 and in the state House before that. Heidepriem has the experience and familiarity to gain the conservative constituent support.

Another Democrat who could possibly fill Herseth Sandlin’s shoes is Johnson’s son Brendan Johnson, who is a partner in a Sioux Falls law firm. Brendan Johnson served as a deputy state attorney in Minnehaha County from 2003 to 2005. While he has never run for public office, he campaigned with his father in the 2008 election.

“It would not be surprising if nine to 10 people ran for the open seat,” said Gary Aguiar, a professor at South Dakota State University. “I don’t think there would be any front-runner.”