Inside the nation’s top 10 House races

With all the fuss over open Senate seats, the House map has gotten lost in the shuffle in the first four months of the 2010 election cycle.

The special elections to replace Cabinet appointees Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) and Hilda Solis (D-Calif.) and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) aren’t the only races being waged with the ink still wet on 2008. Several races in top districts are already forming with almost 20 months to go.

The Hill takes a look at the top 10 races that are already heating up:

1. Idaho-1

Former Rep. Bill Sali (R) has already signed up for a rematch with Rep. Walt Minnick (D) in what should be one of the most competitive races in the nation. But national Republicans are begging off the volatile Sali, noting the many other potential suitors lining up in the heavily conservative district and that Sali hasn’t said he will definitely run. Other GOPers to watch include Idaho Attorney General Lawrence Wasden, state Sen. John McGee, state GOP Chairman Norm Semanko, former state Controller Keith Johnson and Iraq veteran Vaughn Ward.

2008 result: Minnick 51, Sali 49

2. Arizona-5

Similar to Sali, former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert (R) is looking to exact some revenge after a 2008 loss. Schweikert was heralded as one of the top GOP recruits in the country when he jumped in the race against then-freshman Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) last cycle, but he was beat up by both a tough, late primary. In the end, he lost a disappointing race by nine points. He told The Hill on Tuesday that he expects the primary field to be clearer this time around, but only time will tell. “I think there’s a sense of reality out there that, if you’re going to have a September primary, you can’t have something rough-and-tumble and then have a victory in November,” he said.

2008 result: Mitchell 53, Schweikert 44

3. Ohio-1

The third potential rematch to make the list is the most likely to occur. Former Rep. Steve Chabot (R) turned away several tough challenges before succumbing to a difficult set of circumstances and a solid opponent in 2008 foe Steve Driehaus (D). Without President Obama on the ballot in 2010, Chabot likely won’t have to deal with extraordinarily high African-American turnout in his former district, which is more than one-quarter black.

2008 result: Driehaus 52, Chabot 47

4. Georgia-12

Republicans might not have been able to take Rep. John Barrow (D) down under any circumstances in 2008, given Obama’s candidacy and the nearly 50-50 black-white make-up of his district. But losing the race by 30 points was a bit excessive in a district decided by fewer than 1,000 votes just two years prior. Enter orthopedic surgeon and Iraq veteran Wayne Mosley, who wisely turned down a bid last year but jumped in the race almost immediately this year. He has pledged to spend $500,000 of his own money, and has said he will sell some property to do so, according to the Savannah Morning News.

2008 result: Barrow 66,
John Stone (R) 34

5. Hawaii-1

Yes, Hawaii could field a competitive general election race in 2010. With a likely open seat left by the expected gubernatorial candidacy of Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D), national Republicans are high on Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R), who has been running for the seat for more than a year already. With Democrats likely to slug it out in a primary that could feature double-digit candidates, Djou could be a well-funded sleeper. Keep in mind: This seat voted just 53-47 for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004, and the heavily Democratic state has shown a willingness to vote Republican (read: two-term GOP Gov. Linda Lingle).

2008 result: Abercrombie 71,
Steve Tataii (R) 17

6. Kansas-1

Perhaps the first race to really get under way this cycle was in the open seat to replace Senate candidate Rep. Jerry Moran (R). The candidates were in the race so early that two of them put together about $100,000 each by the end of 2008. This monolithic GOP district will be decided in an August primary, and three candidates are already running hard: state Sen. Tim Huelskamp, businessman Tim Barker and Rob Wasinger, the former chief of staff to Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.). Huelskamp and Wasinger are the favorites and are already raising big money, but beware of a bloodbath that could open the door to Barker.

2008 result: Moran 82,
James Bordonaro (D) 13

7. Florida-17

In another open seat created by Senate ambitions, Rep. Kendrick Meek’s (D) early and bold entry into the state’s open Senate race has paved the way for what is expected to be a crowded primary in a majority-black district. Three Haitian-Americans — activist Marleine Bastien and state Reps. Yolly Roberson and Phillip Brutus — are set to run, and another — state Rep. Ronald Brise — could also be a candidate, according to The Miami Herald. State Sen. Frederica Wilson might be the favorite. Miami Gardens City Councilman Andre Williams is also in the race and represents the largest majority-black city in the state.

2008 result: Meek unopposed

8. California-3

Rep. Dan Lungren’s (R) plurality victory in 2008 might have been the most surprising underperformance in the nation — especially against a candidate he dispatched by 21 percent in 2006. That candidate, physician Bill Durston (D), is running again, for the third straight time, and now he has caught the imagination of national Democrats. Durston more than doubled his fundraising between 2006 and 2008, to $730,000, and has the makings of a top Democratic challenger. Lungren was one of just 12 GOPers targeted by a recent DCCC grassroots push.

2008 result: Lungren 50, Durston 44

9. California-44

Another Republican on the receiving end of the DCCC push was Rep. Ken Calvert (R), whose 2008 experience mirrored Lungren’s. Neither was targeted by national Democrats, but like Lungren, Calvert survived with right around 50 percent of the vote. And like Lungren, he faces a rematch. Calvert’s opponent, Corona-Norco school board president Bill Hedrick, raised just $200,000 for his race, but fell two points shy. Hedrick has told the Riverside Press-Enterprise that, after meeting with the national party, he expects its support this time.

2008 result: Calvert 51, Hedrick 49

10. Florida-8

Rep. Alan Grayson (D) was a marked man from the moment he won his seat. The only question, it seems, is whether Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty or state Sen. Dan Webster will run on the GOP side. Only one of them is expected to enter the race, and whoever it is should be the favorite. Crotty has already been making the rounds in Washington and appears to be the most likely candidate. But don’t forget talk-show host Todd Long, who took a shocking 47 percent against then-Rep. Ric Keller (R) in their 2008 primary and is running again.

2008 result: Grayson 52, Keller 48