Obama’s picks and GOP angst are creating a primary boom

Even though the odds of defeating an incumbent are slim — and slimmer still in the primary — at least nine senators on both sides of the aisle could face challenges from within their party.

The large number of primary challenges is not unheard of, said Ross Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University. Baker pointed to 1938, when President Franklin Roosevelt tried to engineer primary defeats of anti-New Deal Democrats like Sens. Walter George (D-Ga.) and Ed Smith (D-S.C.).

{mosads}In 1952, Sen. Joe McCarthy (R-Wis.) tried to recruit conservative challengers to more liberal Republicans, though in the end only a close McCarthy ally, Sen. Owen Brewster (R-Maine) lost his bid for re-nomination (Democrat Al Gore Sr., meanwhile, defeated 83-year-old Sen. Kenneth McKellar in Tennessee).

“This time there are no high-level sponsors for the challenges,” Baker said. “What makes this time different is the large-scale draft of senators by [President] Obama.”

Obama’s White House win, and his subsequent Cabinet appointments, have set up what could be four competitive primaries over replacements for those now serving in top positions.

While early buzz about primary challenges frequently dies off later in the cycle, several incumbents appear so weak they may not be able to scare off their potential intra-party rivals.

The nomination for Obama’s former Senate seat, filled by Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.), is most likely to go to another Democrat. Burris has been the subject of repeated scandals and inquisitions, and though he has set up a campaign account, few believe he can survive the February 2010 primary.

Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) has already formed an exploratory committee, and sources tell The Hill former Commerce Secretary William Daley is likely to make a bid as well. Both would be heavy favorites over the ethically tainted Burris.

Democrats also have been concerned by New York Gov. David Paterson’s (D) appointment of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) to replace Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Several down-state Democrats are considering challenging Gillibrand, who they say is too junior and too conservative to represent the Empire State in the Senate.

Over the weekend, 10 members of Congress wrote a letter to New York Democratic Party Chairwoman June O’Neill urging her not to use party resources to support Gillibrand in advance of the party’s state convention next spring. Signatories included Reps. Carolyn Maloney (D), Carolyn McCarthy (D) and Steve Israel (D), three of Gillibrand’s potential rivals.

Even Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), tapped to replace Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, could find himself in primary trouble. Virtually unknown before his appointment, Bennet could face former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), whose name has been mentioned continually as a potential candidate.

What’s more, big labor groups may fund a challenge to Bennet if he fails to back the Employee Free Choice Act, a measure he has avoided discussing during his brief tenure.

Though the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has effectively managed to avoid primaries in recent years, this year it could face several competitive primaries, given the unusual path to the Senate many of its members have taken.

“This cycle, there are a lot of circumstances beyond their control, like open seats and appointees who haven’t been fully embraced by the party,” said Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor at The Cook Political Report.

Sen. Ted Kaufman (D-Del.), a former top aide to Vice President Biden who was named as a placeholder for Biden’s seat, could set up a primary between Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (D) and former Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) when he retires in 2010.

Republicans, intent on cleaning their own house as some conservatives blame their representatives in Washington for the party’s ills, have several senators who won’t be able to rest easy until they have again secured their nominations.

Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) is no stranger to primary challenges. Six years ago, Specter beat then-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) by just two points in the race for the GOP nomination before going on to an 11-point win in November.

This year, Toomey, now president of the anti-tax Club for Growth, is back following Specter’s vote in favor of an economic stimulus package that outraged fiscal conservatives. The Pennsylvania Republican electorate has changed, too, as many of the centrists who once ensured Specter of victory have migrated to the Democratic Party.

Though Democrats have wooed Specter, the party would face a significantly easier chance of retaking the seat if Toomey were the GOP nominee. Specter has won five statewide elections and has a reputation as an irascible fighter for his state. He, more than Toomey, would likely be able to appeal to former Republican voters who have lately turned the Keystone State a deeper shade of blue.

Utah’s Sen. Bob Bennett (R), one of the most conservative members of the Senate, is apparently not conservative enough for at least some Beehive State Republicans. Attorney General Mark Shurtleff (R) visited Washington two weeks ago to meet with potential fundraisers, and told The Salt Lake Tribune: “I’ve always wanted to serve in the Senate.”

Rep. Paul Broun (R-Ga.), no stranger to beating candidates who were supposed to dispatch him easily, could have his own designs on Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R-Ga.) seat. Rumors are swirling in Georgia that the junior lawmaker is contemplating challenging the largely popular Isakson, and Broun has not ruled out his own bid.

Louisiana Sen. David Vitter (R) will face questions about his involvement in a scandal surrounding the so-called D.C. Madam after he acknowledged his phone number had showed up in her records, but so far he has avoided drawing a top-tier conservative challenger. Both ex-Rep. John Cooksey (R) and Family Research Council chief Tony Perkins have said no.

That would seem to leave only Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R) as a potential rival from the right. Dardenne has considered getting into several higher-level statewide races, only to eventually decline.

Finally, in perhaps the longest shot of all, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has reportedly been raising money at a torrid pace, concerned as rumors swirl that Gov. Sarah Palin (R) may want to try her hand at coming to Washington. Still, political insiders dismiss that possibility.