Fundraising deadline will test 2016 field

The quarterly deadline for campaigns to report their finances is fast approaching, and will be a significant test for the GOP and Democratic presidential fields.

{mosads}Here’s what the candidates need to show in their upcoming statements, which will cover their earnings and expenses from July 1 to September 30.

The next deadline for independent super PACs to file reports with the FEC is January 31.

HILLARY CLINTON

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is raising a lot of money, but is also spending aggressively.

Clinton said one of the big lessons she took from her failed 2008 run for the White House was “organize, organize, organize,” and she is making good on that pledge, building a strong grassroots infrastructure in important early voting states like Iowa. Her campaign reported spending $18 million in her mid-year report, triple the amount of her nearest rival, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

That early spending has helped Clinton build a nationwide ground-game, but she’ll need to keep raking in the cash to keep it going and pay a staff that is larger than that of any other candidate.

That means expectations for Clinton are high. Even a $30 million haul – a good quarter by any other campaign’s standards – would be viewed by many as a letdown, according to Democratic strategist Joe Trippi.  

JEB BUSH

Bush has more money than any other Republican in the race, but has largely depended on the independent super-PAC Right to Rise.  

While that super PAC raised more than $100 million by mid-year — an unprecedented amount at this stage in a presidential cycle — Bush’s campaign team raised only $11.4 million in hard money. He needs to raise more to bolster confidence in his campaign.

Bush’s poll numbers have fallen, raising doubts about his strength. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker left the race as his own polls faltered and it became clear he could not raise the money to support his large campaign. Bush doesn’t want to have the same look on his campaign.

Raising hard-dollar funds is also crucial to Bush because his campaign needs the dollars to control its own messages, run an effective ground-game, travel widely and take advantage of the cheaper advertising rates given to candidates’ official campaigns.

“The most efficient dollars you can spend are campaign dollars,” said Stuart Stevens, the chief strategist of Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign.

Bush’s team, which is already trimming costs, will also want to demonstrate that they enjoy the support of thousands of small donors. It would be valuable public relations for Bush to be able to brag of broad donor support — and to fight off suggestions he’s the beneficiary of a few billionaires.

CARLY FIORINA

No candidate has benefited more from the Republican debates than Carly Fiorina, who jumped to second place in the recent CNN/ORC national poll.

Fiorina’s surge is expected to boost her campaign funds, which in the July quarterly report were only $1.7 million – a tiny sum that has forced the independent super-PAC “CARLY for America” to test legal boundaries and operate like an arm of Fiorina’s campaign.

Fiorina’s campaign has been promoting her performance in fundraising emails. It will need a strong quarter to convince hesitant donors that they should back Fiorina instead of other candidates in the race.

BERNIE SANDERS & BEN CARSON

Sanders and Carson are perhaps the only two candidates who can credibly claim to be raising their money from small donations.

Sanders, the Vermont Independent challenging Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, is the only candidate currently running for president who rejects super-PACs. He’s raised more of his money in small donations than anyone else. 

In Sanders’s July quarterly report, 76 percent of his $14 million came in amounts of $200 or less. By comparison, less than 3 percent of Bush’s $11 million did so, while less than 17 percent of Clinton’s donations came from such small donors.

Sixty-eight percent of Carson’s money in his July report came from donations of $200 or less. Carson’s campaign claims those small donations have tumbled in at an unprecedented rate since his rise in the polls after the first Republican debate. 

The Sep. 30 figures will be the first test of Carson’s claims, and could influence whether bigger donors back him. Carson has lagged rivals in super-PAC support.

TED CRUZ & MARCO RUBIO

Rubio and Cruz both seem poised for a surge in the fall, and both will want to brag about significant hard-dollar contributions.

The two already enjoy support from strong super-PACs, but to continue their momentum Rubio and Cruz are vying to recruit top staff, donors, and fundraisers from the failed campaigns of Walker and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who both dropped out due to financial troubles.

A number of operatives and donors from both the Walker and Perry camps say they will hear the pitches of several candidates before deciding who to support.

The hard dollar fundraising totals will be key data used by the Cruz and Rubio campaigns to convince top Walker and Perry talent that their team has the best chance of staying in the race and winning the Republican nomination.

JOHN KASICH & CHRIS CHRISTIE

Ohio Gov. John Kasich might have more to prove than any GOP candidate.

A strong financial report would reassure Kasich’s current super-PAC donors, who have been spending millions on his behalf to boost his polling in New Hampshire, where he hopes he can beat Bush and become the GOP establishment pick.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is in a similar position after two solid debates.

But he also needs to do well in New Hampshire and is polling behind Kasich.

Christie’s super-PAC is pouring money into national advertising, and he needs to convince his big outside donors that he will not run out of campaign funds as Walker and Perry did.

Neither Kasich nor Christie has filed a campaign finance report yet, so the October numbers will give donors a first look at their relative strength.

“We are extremely confident and we will absolutely have the funds necessary to win,” Christie spokeswoman Samantha Smith told The Hill. 

DONALD TRUMP

The GOP front-runner has talked about spending $100 million to self-fund his campaign, but has so far used little money while benefiting from wall-to-wall news coverage.

If the media’s fascination with Trump ever fades, he may need to pump his own money into his campaign to repel attacks from rivals.

When asked on Face the Nation on Aug. 23 whether he was prepared to foot the bill for a general election campaign that will likely cost at least $1 billion, Trump said he was open to being funded at least partly by his supporters.

Trump’s July report – which covered a period of only two weeks after he announced his candidacy on June 16 – showed that he raised $92,000 from supporters and put $1.8 million of his own money into his campaign.

Trump has since boasted that his campaign has “a lot of money coming in” from “small contributors,” and that he would continue rejecting checks with “strings attached” from lobbyists and special interests.

The October quarterly report will give the clearest indication so far of how much grassroots money Trump can expect to support his campaign.