National Democrats got the Senate candidate they wanted for the critical Pennsylvania seat in Katie McGinty, but the race’s outcome is likely to be determined by who’s at the top of the presidential ticket.
Pennsylvania hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, giving Democrats hope they can take back the Senate seat won by GOP Sen. Pat Toomey in 2010.
{mosads}They’re also bullish because of the likelihood that Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee. Trump’s numbers with women are weak, and the hope is that having McGinty on a Hillary Clinton ticket will be a hit with suburban Democratic women.
“This has to be one of Sen. Toomey’s fears: the nationalizing of this race and the ability to try to link Donald Trump and Pat Toomey,” said Chris Borick, political science professor at Muhlenberg College. “That’s something that’s going to be an issue for Toomey all the way to election day.”
Toomey has looked strong so far, with a lead against McGinty in a poll from earlier this month and more than $9 million in the bank while the former chief of staff to Gov. Tom Wolf (D) has shallow coffers after a costly contested primary.
However, the GOP senator will have to overcome the obstacles of a presidential year and try to distance himself from Trump if he wants to survive reelection.
Strategists say he’ll need to focus on his achievements during his tenure and highlight bipartisan efforts like his gun control bill with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) that requires background checks for gun sales.
“It makes it potentially more difficult, but every campaign has factors in which it has no control,” Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania GOP consultant, said about the impact of the presidential race. “The key to win campaigns masterfully is to take care of the things you do have control.”
One potential silver lining for Toomey is Pennsylvania’s history of ticket-splitting voters, though observers say the state has shifted away from that trend. The last GOP senator from the state to win in a presidential year was 2004. Then-Sen. Arlen Specter won reelection when the state voted for Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry.
“It’s not something that Pennsylvanians refuse to do. They will split tickets,” Borick said. “I think they’re splitting less than they use to, which might be problematic for him, but it’s nonetheless one of the potential saving graces for him this fall.”
But McGinty is trying to see that this doesn’t happen. She has been repeatedly tying Toomey to Trump. The second line in her Tuesday night victory speech linked the two Republicans, and she mentioned the real estate mogul an additional six times.
“Toomey and Trump would repeal the Affordable Care Act and return us to a time when insurance companies called the shots,” McGinty said during her speech. “They would end Social Security and Medicare as we know it, denying a dignified retirement for working men and women across the country.”
Trying to distance himself from Trump even before the Democratic Senate nominee had been determined, Toomey noted on Tuesday’s primary election day that he voted for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
He also fired back at McGinty’s characterization and in turn, tied her to Clinton.
“Katie McGinty may try to, somehow, tie me to Donald Trump. That’s fine. She can do whatever she needs to do, but the fact is, she is in lockstep with Hillary Clinton,” Toomey told a Philadelphia talk radio show on Wednesday, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Toomey’s substantial money edge — McGinty lags by at least $8 million — gives him a head start and a chance to define his Democratic opponent early in the race. During his primary night remarks, which were delivered before McGinty was declared the winner, Toomey labeled his opponents as an extension of the Democratic establishment.
But even with Toomey’s early advantages, gender issues will likely take center stage in both the presidential and Senate race. Trump frequently derides Clinton for playing the “woman’s card” and said at his Tuesday victory speech that if she “were a man, I don’t think she’d get 5 percent of the vote.” And because of this, some believe McGinty will have the upper hand.
“With a top of the ticket on the Democratic side likely to be women, that issue’s going to be highlighted,” Borick said.
If she wins in November, McGinty would be the state’s first female senator.
Presidential politics aside, it’s a race that’s expected to be fought until the bitter end and has already drawn an influx of cash and support from outside groups.
Fewer than 24 hours after the primary, the conservative Club for Growth released a TV ad attacking McGinty, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce released its second ad in the race in which former Philadelphia Eagles player Vince Papale endorsed Toomey.
Democratic super-PAC Senate Majority PAC blasted out a memo on Wednesday linking Toomey to Wall Street and Charles and David Koch. And both campaigns have sent memos since Tuesday attacking their opponent’s record.
“The attacks back and forth will begin early and will accelerate in the months to come,” Gerow said. “It will be a ping pong game of attack and reaction.”
But even as the races continues to intensify and draw big dollars, many still maintain the top of the presidential ticket will ultimately dictate who ends up clinching the seat.
“Both these campaigns and their independent expenditures are going to spend zillions of dollars,” said Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia Democratic strategist. “I don’t think anybody’s going to win or lose with money spent. I think it comes down to the intangibles of what’s happening at the top of the ticket.”