The wildest primary fight of this cycle comes to a close on Tuesday when Florida Democratic voters pick between Reps. Patrick Murphy and Alan Grayson for their Senate nominee.
The contest saw a screaming match at a House caucus meeting; Democratic leaders pressing one of their own to exit the race; controversy over a Cayman Islands hedge fund; and damaging allegations from a candidate’s ex-wife.
{mosads}The winner will challenge Sen. Marco Rubio (R) in the general election for a seat Democrats will likely need if they hope to recapture the Senate next year.
National Democrats weren’t shy about their preferred candidate. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee rallied early behind Murphy, while Grayson was still mulling a run. They saw Murphy, a former Republican, as their best chance to scoop up a seat, compared to Grayson, a magnet for controversy with a reputation for being outspoken.
Yet, progressive groups like Democracy for America (DFA) and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) lined up behind Grayson early this year, touting him as a champion of liberal causes.
A third Democratic candidate, labor attorney and former Navy officer Pam Keith, failed to gain traction despite endorsements from several newspapers, including the Miami Herald.
The contest started to unravel for Grayson, who runs a hedge fund, in February when the New York Times obtained email exchanges from 2015 between him and top aides, urging him to close the investment shop to avoid damaging his campaign. Critics have pounced on Grayson, questioning the ethics of a sitting lawmaker managing a hedge fund.
Grayson met with an ethics investigator last October regarding the fund, which was created in 2011 after he lost reelection but remained open when he came back to Congress in 2013.
The controversy prompted outgoing Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid the following day to urge Grayson to drop out of the race, citing allegations he violated House rules in running the hedge fund. That feud escalated in May when Reid visited a Congressional Progressive Caucus meeting and Grayson confronted the Nevada Democrat.
“Shame on you. It’s not true,” Grayson said about the allegations in a fiery exchange. Reid shot back, “It is true, and I want you to lose.”
Even with the hedge fund scrutiny, Grayson led Murphy in polls by double-digits at the time. But Murphy received a jolt of momentum in March with an endorsement from President Obama and campaign appearances with Vice President Biden.
Murphy’s had his own speed bumps in the primary.
An investigation from CBS Miami reportedly found he overstated parts of his resume, and Republicans hounded him for receiving significant financial backing from his father, dubbing him “Privileged Patrick.” Thomas Murphy, a Florida homebuilder, recently wrote Senate Majority PAC a $1 million check.
Patrick Murphy also weathered harsh attacks from Grayson, who called him a “sock puppet” of the Democratic establishment while also questioning his party affiliation.
Both candidates likened their opponents to GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump.
Grayson also suffered a blow after domestic abuse allegations from his ex-wife surfaced last month. That led to more calls to drop out, including from incoming Senate Democratic leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.), and saw progressive groups including DFA and PCCC retract their endorsements.
Citing those allegations, Murphy backed out of the only scheduled debate with all Democratic candidates.
Going into Tuesday, Murphy appears to be in a comfortable position, leading Grayson in a recent Florida survey by 30 points.
For Republicans, their primary hasn’t been as drama-filled.
Rubio made a last-minute entry back into the race after his failed presidential bid and pressure from Republican Senate colleagues to run for reelection. All but one of the five Republicans who were seeking his seat quickly dropped out.
The last man standing is Carlos Beruff, a wealthy businessman who aligned himself with Trump. Beruff loaned his long-shot campaign more than $8 million to try to take down Rubio.
But Rubio goes into Tuesday as the heavy favorite, leading Beruff in a recent poll by nearly 40 points.
The Florida race has high stakes for both parties in November.
“For people voting in both primaries, your party regulars and party activists, both … are critically aware of the fact that Florida’s Senate race can make a difference in who controls the Congress,” said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida, Tampa.
Both Rubio and Murphy are already looking to the general and giving a preview of the tough fight ahead.
Rubio is hammering Murphy for voting against funding to fight the Zika virus, a prominent issue given the recent outbreaks in Florida. But Murphy and Democrats say they rejected a House GOP bill because of language blocking funding for Planned Parenthood.
Murphy’s campaign, meanwhile, is blasting Rubio for supporting Trump.
But Murphy lags in name recognition, and the wounds from his fight with Grayson could hurt him in the general, some political observers say.
“Most Floridians don’t know who he is,” said Kathryn DePalo, political science professor at Florida International University. “I think Rubio has an edge in that sense.”
So far, Rubio has led nearly every poll in the likely Senate match-up, even outperforming Trump at the top of the ticket. But Rubio isn’t taking the race for granted and is warning Republicans that it’s critical they hold the seat.
“If we lose the Senate in Florida, that means we probably lose the Senate,” Rubio said in Tallahassee. “That means Chuck Schumer becomes majority leader. That means all of the of these public policies that Barack Obama has put into place remain in place for the foreseeable future.”
Obama carried Florida in both 2008 and 2012, and in an unconventional presidential year, observers say the Senate race could largely hinge on one thing: voter turnout.
“I think he’s got a real race, and I think he’s taking Murphy seriously,” DePalo said. “I think a lot of it’s going to come to turnout.”
Two other Florida primaries to watch on on Tuesday are:
Florida’s 9th District: Grayson’s open seat is a safe Democratic district. Another Grayson could replace him: his newlywed, Dena Grayson. The two married in May, which gives her the benefit of name recognition in the Orlando-area district. She faces a crowded primary against state Sen. Darren Soto, Susannah Randolph and Valleri Crabtree. Randolph, Grayson’s former congressional aide, is the preferred candidate of House Democrats.
Florida’s 18th District: Murphy’s competitive swing district presents one of the few pick-up opportunities for House Republicans this fall. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is backing Randy Perkins, who faces Jonathan Chane in the Democratic primary. The GOP primary features six candidates, including Rebecca Negron, physician Mark Freeman and Army veteran Brian Mast.
Cristina Marcos contributed.